BB5: Bills Super Bowl Window Remains Open
Since last season and into this offseason, there has been much talk about the Buffalo Bills Super Bowl window closing. The national media is seeing the names that have been cut or traded, and that’s enough for them to say the window is shut, or as Emanuel Acho recently said, “that window is covered with drywall, and if you removed the drywall there are bars in the window.” I prefer it when the team is doubted as they were in years prior. It doesn’t make sense to me that a team coming off of their 4th straight division title, with the best quarterback in their division, and arguably top 3 in the NFL, is returning with their head coach and offensive coordinator to be written off at this point but here we are. In this edition of BB5, I will give five reasons why I am confident that the window is not closed, and why the window is open as much as it has ever been.
Josh Allen: Josh Allen has shown that he is a top quarterback in the NFL who has continued to improve his overall skill set and work on the deficiencies that were evident early on in his career. As long as he is healthy and lining up behind center the Bills window will be open. At the end of last year, he proved that he can adapt his style of play for the better of the team and doesn’t need to throw the ball 40+ times a game. He also attracts talent to Buffalo. Wide Receivers are going to continue coming to Buffalo on 1-year deals to have a chance at playing with Allen and re-setting their market. Having an elite quarterback under contract allows the roster turnover we saw this offseason without taking a year off from contention.
Brandon Beane: Brandon Beane is a top NFL GM. His ability to maneuver through free agency and fill roster holes with minimal cap space has allowed the Bills to draft the best player available each year. Like all GMs, he has made mistakes in the draft and FA but has quickly rectified them. Moving on from a 2nd round pick in Basham after two years, cutting Deonte Harty, and trading Stefon Diggs were all moves that needed to be made. The roster moves made this offseason to prepare the team for the future were not easy but necessary. Beane has shown the ability to find players on bargain deals and work with players on contracts they may not be living up to as we saw with the Dawson Knox and Vonn Miller pay cuts this offseason. Beane will continue building Super Bowl-caliber rosters for the Buffalo Bills.
Coaching Staff: Sean McDermott gets a lot of criticism for not getting the Bills over the hump and some of it is deserved. He also has the second most wins in Bills history with 73 and the highest win % at .640. He is an excellent football coach who has turned the organization around from what we watched throughout the 2000s before his arrival. The culture he has developed and the staff he has brought in are exceptional and vital to the development of core players on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. These players arrived in Buffalo as developmental projects or castaways from other teams and became All-Pro caliber players during their Bills careers. The Bills have a great supporting cast on both sides of the ball to continue the success that started when Sean McDermott arrived in Buffalo in 2017.
The Roster: The Bills lost many recognizable names this offseason for the first time under the current regime. It was a tough pill to swallow but a necessary one. It was hard to see the likes of Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White gone from the roster after being cornerstones for the last four to seven years. The fact is, it was time for the change to happen. The Bills needed to get younger and pay players who could be on the field. White’s injuries derailed what looked like a long career in Buffalo, but he only played in 21 of the 51 regular season games since his 4-year extension kicked in. The Bills’ current roster is quite possibly the deepest it has ever been but lacks the top-end names that fans and the national media have recognized in the past. The average age of their top 53 is 27.6 years old, and that does not account for the ten draft picks they just made that remained unsigned. On top of the youth movement is competition in some key positions. The Bills’ staff prides themselves on playing the best players at each position regardless of their contract or draft position. The wide receiver and secondary groups will benefit from this in training camp.
Salary Cap Health: The Bills’ salary cap is not pretty in 2024. They have dead cap figures accounting for a little over 21% of their 2024 salary cap figure according to Spotrac. After this year the Bills will see significant relief with their dead cap number and the space they have to utilize on signing free agents and extending existing players. Christian Benford, Spencer Brown, James Cook, Gregory Rousseau, and Khalil Shakir should all expect to receive 2nd contract offers from the Bills over the next 1-2 years. Josh Allen’s contract will also need to be re-visited soon as the one he signed in 2021 now has him on the fringe of being one of the top 10 highest-paid quarterbacks in the league based on AAV. These moves, with the expectation that Von Miller’s contract will be terminated next year, clear up what was a murky situation going into this offseason. The Bills’ ability to re-sign current players to rebuild a foundational core while attracting free agents will be more manageable moving forward.
