BB5: Bills Who Have Earned Contract Extensions
We have reached the summer lull in the NFL offseason schedule. Minicamps have concluded, and we are now in the “Lists Season” phase of the offseason until training camps open at the end of July. In this edition of BB5, I will evaluate players eligible for new contracts, two players who will qualify at the end of the 2024 season, and the priority of securing these extensions. While I am not a contracts expert, I will use the contract parameters of a comparable player that I believe would align with what the Bills will offer, providing a reliable basis for my analysis.
Terrel Bernard: Bernard is a higher priority to me of the two players who become eligible for extensions at the end of this year. His command of the defense and impact on the game are vital to the Bills' success. Bernard stepped into the MLB position and made more splash plays in his first season than we saw in five years of Tremaine Edmunds. That’s not a knock on Edmunds as much as it compliments how impressive Bernard was in his first year as a starter. There were concerns in training camp last year about who would replace Edmunds, and Bernard dispelled them quickly. I feel the Bills will prioritize Bernard’s extension at the end of this season.
Contract Comparison: Patrick Queen 3 years/$41 million signed in FA Patrick Queen Contract
Christian Benford: Benford's play over the past two seasons has looked more like a first-round pick than the sixth-round steal that he was. If this continues in year 3, he will only add more money to his bank account. The only concern I see with Benford is staying healthy. He has missed 12 games over his first two seasons, including three playoff games. Benford’s size, coverage skills, and tackling ability at the DB position make him a priority to lock up at the end of the season. Buffalo can add incentives into his contract to offset the injury concern.
Contract Comparison: Charvarius Ward 3 years/$40.5 million signed in FA Charvarius Ward Contract
Gregory Rousseau: Rousseau is a tricky player to evaluate because he is a productive rusher for the Bills but doesn't have the sack totals to back it up. PFF graded him as their 13th-ranked edge rusher overall in 2023 Edge Grades. The Bills recognize the potential in the 24-year-old and picked up his 5th-year option this offseason. If Rousseau capitalizes on the pressures and starts hitting double-digit sack totals, career high is 8, he will quickly increase the value of his next contract. This has the potential of Ed Oliver’s signing where it looks high initially but will be a bargain if the trajectory stays on course.
Contract Comparison: Jonathan Greenard 4 years/$76 million in FA Jonathan Greenard Contract
Josh Allen: Allen signed his extension in the summer of 2021, which at the time, made him the second highest-paid quarterback in terms of AAV. What a difference a few years make as he now sits 11th with a slew of quarterbacks ahead of him without the resume he holds Quarterback Contracts. I don't think this is an issue the team has to worry about with Allen in terms of being happy with them, but I do think it should be addressed sooner rather than later. It’s safe to assume that the extensions that Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa sign will push Allen further down this list before the regular season begins. There isn't a contract comparison for this deal because I think Allen will most likely exceed any existing contracts with the potential of the first $60 million+ AAV.
Spencer Brown: Brown had a career year in 2023 and now enters the final year of his rookie deal. According to PFF Tackles Grades, Brown ranked as the 32nd tackle overall last year, which puts him in line for a decent pay raise. Brown proved why the Bills have been so high on him with his production in 2023 and has an edge with his game that is needed on the offensive line. Keeping the offensive line together needs to be a priority for the Bills with the design of the current offense. If Brown has another season similar to 2023, he will be in line for a big payday. I have two contract comps that could be in the range, depending on when Brown is signed.
Contract Comparison: Jack Conklin 4 years/$60 million Jack Conklin Contract Braden Smith 4 years/$70 million Braden Smith Contract
*Update: Signed 4-year/$72 million extension through 2028 season on September 6, 2024
Wait and See
James Cook is a player who will deserve a second contract, but the Bills shouldn't rush into signing him to one due to the nature of the position. Unfortunately for Cook, there isn’t a real benefit for a team to sign a running back to an extension early. That, on top of the addition of Ray Davis, will make this a potential franchise tag opportunity at the end of the contract.
Khalil Shakir is another player who will deserve a second contract if he builds off of last year. Can he improve on that without the other players around him taking off the pressure? I say yes. He isn't eligible for an extension until the completion of the 2024 season, so the Bills will get another year to help make a decision. The other factor hurting Shakir here is the low cost of his rookie contract since he was a 5th-round pick.
