Week 14: Bills at Rams Preview
The 10-2 Buffalo Bills head west for a matchup with the 6-6 Los Angeles Rams. The Bills are on a seven-game win streak after defeating the 49ers 35-10, while the Rams have won five of their last seven after starting the season 1-4. Both teams have a lot at stake as the Bills continue their push to get the number one seed in the AFC, and the Rams are in the thick of the NFC West race, which has all four teams within two games of each other. Both teams are trending towards pretty clean injury reports, which would be a first for the Bills in quite some time. Buffalo opened the 21-day practice window for rookie DeWayne Carter, who had been out since he injured his wrist in late October. Carter has been a full participant in practice for a second consecutive week and needs to be added to the 53-man roster if he will be making his return this weekend.
Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
James Cook - This matchup favors Cook and the running backs to have a big game on the ground and out of the backfield in the passing game. Cook is coming off only his second 100+ rushing-yard performance of the season, but I anticipate he will have a third after facing a defense that’s given up the 6th most rushing yards in the NFL at an average of 4.6 yards per carry. Running backs are averaging 5 catches a game at 7 yards a catch against the Rams defense. Getting Cook and the rushing attack going early will slow down the Rams’ pass rush and open up the field for Allen and the receivers.
Von Miller - This is a vibes pick. Miller loves the spotlight and will face his former team, which he helped win Super Bowl LVI before signing with the Bills that offseason. This will be the second matchup against the Rams since Miller signed with Buffalo. Miller finished that game with four tackles and two sacks. That seems like a lifetime ago with how Miller’s tenure has gone in Buffalo, but I expect him to show up Sunday and take advantage of a team that throws the ball around 60% of the time with an offensive line that is middle of the pack giving up two sacks a game. Greg Rousseau is the best defensive lineman on the team, but the attention he draws will help Miller have his best game of the season.
Khalil Shakir - I expect Shakir to have his best game of the season this weekend. The Rams are one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL and give up 10.9 yards per reception. Shakir is averaging 8.1 yards after catch and facing a defense that struggles underneath in pass coverage. He has averaged 9 targets a game over the last 5, and the Bills should have all their pass-catching weapons playing together for the first time in a few games. The Bills will spread out the Rams’ defense on passing downs and give Josh Allen’s favorite target room to operate.
3 Rams Players to Watch
Puka Nacua - Nacua has been a beast since returning from his injury. Over his last four games, he has 30 catches for 394 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is a physical, crafty route runner who won’t blow by his defender but has an exceptional knack for getting open and making contested catches. The Bills DBs will need to be prepared for a high volume of targets heading his way and not get lost in the muck that the Rams try to create with their bunched formations. This will be a fun matchup to watch.
Jared Verse - Verse appears to be the 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, based on how he has played this season. The first-round pick has wreaked havoc in opposing teams' backfields, racking up 4.5 sacks, 11 tackles for a loss, and 2 forced fumbles through 12 games. Per PFF, Verse is fourth in pressures with 55 and ninth in pass rush win rate at 18.8%. Communication on the line will be vital for the Bills’ offense to stay ahead of downs and not get into long down and distance situations. Unfortunately for the Bills, Verse is paired with fellow rookie Braden Fiske alongside Kobie Turner and Byron Young, who make up one of the best young pass rushes in the NFL. Buffalo’s offensive line has gone back-to-back weeks without giving up a sack. This streak will be tested on Sunday.
Kyren Williams - Since week 4 of the 2023 season, Williams has averaged 4.7 yards per carry, scoring 19 touchdowns on the ground. The third-year back has become one of the best running backs in the NFL since taking over as RB1 and becoming a focal point in the offense for L.A. He is currently 5th in yards but does have 5 fumbles on the season, losing 3. The Bills will need to be ready on defense to stop the run with their 30th-ranked 4.9 ypc they’re giving up to opposing running backs. The Bills will need another big game out of the interior of their defensive line, with DaQuan Jones and revitalized Jordan Phillips showing some spark over the last few weeks.
Matchup of the Game
The Bills’ secondary vs the Rams receivers. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nucua are a dangerous duo at the receiver position. Both receivers missed portions of the beginning of the season (4 games Kupp and 5 games Nacua) but have accounted for 36% of Stafford’s targets on the year and 37% of the receptions and yards for Rams pass catchers. They can take over games quickly and are lethal out of bunch formations, something the Rams offense utilizes 61% of the time per Next Gen Stats (#1 in the NFL). This is a formation that the Bills defense has struggled against, with 75% of passes being completed when used (worst in the NFL), and Matthew Stafford is completing 71% of his throws when the offense is in this formation.
Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson must be ready. I expect the Rams will utilize this formation often to help create separation and confusion in the secondary.
Prediction: Bills 34 Rams 17
The Bills will win their 8th consecutive game on Sunday. They are playing balanced, mistake-free football on offense right now, and the defense is coming into its own and will only improve as Matt Milano continues to get up to speed. The Rams will have success on offense early in the game as the defense figures out how they want to play. As dynamic a duo as Kupp and Nacua are, I am more confident in the ability of the Bills DBs to matchup strength against strength and hold their own. Second-half adjustments will help slow things down, and the Rams’ defense will not be able to slow down the dynamic Buffalo offense. Go Bills!
