AFC North Preview
Between now and the start of training camp, I will review the AFC Divisions and where I project the teams to finish the season. Each preview will consist of their Vegas odds heading into 2024, how they ended 2023, some new additions to the team, rookies to watch, and how I expect they will finish in 2024. Let's start with the division that sent three teams to the playoffs in 2023, including the number 1 overall seed in the AFC, the AFC North. The return of a healthy Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow, along with the additions of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, will make that a difficult feat to accomplish again. This division will be the most challenging division to win in the AFC due to the grueling division matchups. It doesn't get easier outside the division, as Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh have 3 of the 4 most difficult schedules heading into 2024 based on the opponent's 2023 records.
Division Odds Baltimore Ravens +110
The Ravens once again proved that their run-first, defense-first approach is capable of winning them many games. However, they came up short at home in the AFC title game to the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. Lamar Jackson capped off the 2023 season by winning his second league MVP award but is now 2-4 in the playoffs since becoming the starter. Baltimore entered the offseason feeling they were close to getting over the hump and a few pieces away. Their addition of Derrick Henry was the most intriguing signing within the division during free agency. Pairing Henry with Lamar Jackson in a run-first offense will be difficult to gameplan against. The Ravens continued to draft well and retooled their secondary, along with a tackle expected to slide into a starting role. The key things to watch will be how the Ravens offense handles teams that are able to stymie their running game and how big of a loss Patrick Queen is to their defense. I expect Baltimore to be in the mix again this year, but due to one of the more difficult NFL schedules in 2024, they will not repeat as AFC North Champs.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Devontez Walker
Def. Rookie to Watch: CB Nate Wiggins
Playoff Prediction: Wildcard Team
Face Bills Week 4 in Baltimore on SNF
Division Odds Cincinnati Bengals +180
The Bengals stayed competitive in 2023, but the loss of Joe Burrow was too much to overcome, even with the impressive play of backup Jake Browning as they missed the playoffs after back-to-back AFC North titles. The Bengals are hopeful that the additions of Zack Moss and Mike Gesicki will offset the losses of longtime running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tyler Boyd. The weapons at Burrow’s disposal, on top of an improved offensive line, will make them a potent offense heading into 2024. They will also be the benefactor of playing a last-place schedule, which will help them stack wins outside of their difficult divisional matchups (4-8 in the last 2 seasons.) The one thing that could derail them in 2024 is the contract uncertainty surrounding Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson. If they are able to get those situated, I expect the Bengals to return to the top of the division and win their third crown in four years.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Jermaine Burton
Def. Rookie to Watch: DT Kris Jenkins
Playoff Prediction: AFC North Winner
Division Odds Cleveland Browns +600
Cleveland went on a tear to end the 2023 season and get into the playoffs behind the NFL’s number 1 defense and 2023 Comeback Player of The Year, Joe Flacco. Heading into 2024, Deshaun Watson is healthy, and the Browns will be bringing back nearly all of their starters on defense. They traded for Jerry Jeudy to pair with Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku. This will be the best offense Watson has ever had around him, but will he be able to stay healthy and look like the quarterback for whom Cleveland traded three first-round picks? My opinion is no, which is unfortunate because Cleveland may have the best defense in the NFL in 2024 again, led by the reigning DPOY, Myles Garrett. The Browns' inconsistent play from Watson will be the reason they don't make the playoffs in 2024.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Jamari Thrash
Def. Rookie to Watch: DT Michael Hall Jr.
Playoff Prediction: No
Division Odds Pittsburgh Steelers +1100
Surprisingly, Pittsburgh made the playoffs in 2023 with inconsistent QB play behind their defense led by T.J. Watt and a strong finish to the season for Najee Harris. They still haven’t answered the quarterback problem, but adding Fields and Wilson is an upgrade over the carousel they used to fill the role last year. They will miss Diontae Johnson's production at the WR position, but Roman Wilson may end up being an upgrade in the long run, alongside the signing of Van Jefferson this offseason. The addition of Patrick Queen to the linebacker group was a strong signing for the Steelers' defense. I don't think these moves will be enough to overcome the NFL’s most difficult schedule and return to the playoffs in 2024, but the Steelers have a lot of young talent on their roster to build on.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Roman Wilson
Def. Rookie to Watch: LB Payton Wilson
Playoff Prediction: No
Face Bills Week 2 of the preseason in Pittsburgh
