BB5: Offensive Break-Out Candidates
Some players seem poised for a breakout in production every year based on how they finished the previous season or just a hunch in some cases. In this edition of BB5, I will cover players who I think will be key contributors this year and break their previous career-high numbers in Joe Brady’s offense.
Khalil Shakir. This may seem obvious with how Shakir ended the ‘23 season and performed in the playoffs. The main reason why I think Shakir will break out in 2024 is because of his versatility. Shakir seems to be able to get open no matter where he is lined up and has a 75% catch rate for his career, 87% in 2023. I see 2024 Shakir morphing into the role Cole Beasly performed so well in as Allen’s safety valve with more YAC ability. On top of Joe Brady’s offensive creativity, this excites me for Shakir as he enters year 3.
2024 Projection: 65 catches, 950 yards, 6 TDs
Dalton Kincaid. Maybe it's another obvious choice, but it’s clear that the offense is moving in Kincaid’s direction with how it finished the 2023 season. In weeks 8-17 Kincaid had 43 catches for 415 yards. This was 60% of his production for ‘23 with a 2-game stretch sprinkled in with 1 catch for 7 yards combined. Kincaid had an 80% catch rate as a rookie and showed his ability to find soft spots in the middle of the field as another safety valve for Allen. I expect that he will become the number 2 target for Allen behind Diggs and gain some of the deep targets that will be needed with the departure of Gabe Davis.
2024 Projection: 85 catches, 1020 yards, 8 TDs
Ty Johnson. Johnson carved out a role for himself on the Bills roster in 2023, taking the snaps from Latavius Murray and Leonard Fournette's short stint. Barring any setbacks or bigger-name signings, I expect Johnson to be the RB2 at the start of the season. He proved to be a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield and a strong runner on his limited carries.
2024 Projection: 110 touches, 600 total yards, 5 TDs
Dark Horse Candidates
Justin Shorter. There is always a fringe roster player that I expect to be a breakout player for the Bills (Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Christian Wade). Most of the time it doesn't happen. Shorter can become the exception to the rule due to his raw ability and size. That, on top of him being different from all of the other receivers on the team, gives me optimism that he will find a role on the team. 2023 was a red-shirt season for Shorter, but I think he has the potential to make a splash in 2024, similar to Gabe Davis’s rookie season.
Connor McGovern. Could McGovern become the next Pro Bowl Center for the Bills? He proved to be a strong Guard, but due to his size at the center position, I feel he could excel in Kromer’s system with Brady’s play calling. He could be the key to seeing the running game expand in 2024.
