Week 5: Bills at Texans Preview
The Bills are looking to get back on track after suffering their first defeat of the season as they head to Houston for the much-anticipated matchup against the 3-1 Texans. All eyes will be on former Bills' receiver Stefon Diggs after his trade this spring and pointed comments about his role with the team during the second half of last season. Buffalo will need a better performance than Sunday night as they face one of the league's best secondaries, holding opposing quarterbacks to completing 57.3% of their passes and 184 yards per game through the first four weeks.
The Bills will be without Von Miller, who received a 4-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, along with four players Sean McDermott ruled out Friday morning; starters Ed Oliver, Khalil Shakir, and Taylor Rapp along with Austin Johnson. Dion Dawkins and Terrel Bernard appear to be heading towards playing Sunday. It would be Bernard’s first game since injuring his pectoral muscle in the Bills’ week two victory against the Dolphins. They most likely will be without Taron Johnson, who is still recovering from a broken forearm suffered in week one.
Like the Bills, the Texans have some key players with injury designations heading into their week five matchup. Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, and Derek Barnett have not practiced this week. Mixon hasn't played in the last two games and is not expected to play this weekend, and Pierce has missed their last three. Tank Dell returned to practice this week after missing last week's game vs Jacksonville, and it appears he will be playing on Sunday. Former Bills DE Jerry Hughes missed practice on Thursday with a hip injury. Starting offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, and Juice Scruggs have all been limited in practice this week with varying lower-body injuries but are expected to play.
This is an important game for both teams early in their seasons. The Texans loaded offense has struggled in recent weeks, especially in the absence of Mixon leading their rushing attack. Outside of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, their passing attack has yet to take off the way everyone anticipated it would coming into the season. The Bills are coming off their first regular season loss of more than 8 points since 2021 in their first true test of the season. A lot of the praise they received in weeks 1-3 quickly disappeared as the questions resurfaced surrounding their lack of a true #1 wide receiver. All of this makes for a great matchup in Houston this Sunday, with a few key players to watch and my matchup of the game. Let’s dive in.
3 Bills Players to Watch
James Cook: Cook is averaging 4.5 ypc to start the season and will need to be fed the ball early and often to help stifle the Texans' front seven. Establishing the run will slow down their pass rush and the aggressive linebacker corps against a defense allowing 4.7 ypc and 113 ypg. Cook had success running against the Ravens before the score got out of hand, eliminating the run game. Attacking the Texans’ defense’s weakness and getting him going early will help the offensive line and the passing attack as the game progresses.
Keon Coleman: Coleman showed some growth in the Bills' week four loss to Baltimore, which made him one of my top players from the game. The chemistry he is developing with Allen on the back shoulder throws opens up a new weapon to the offense that hasn't existed in previous years. With the trust building between him and Allen, Coleman can take advantage of his size in this matchup and continue showing his ability to make the contested catch. Look for Coleman to step up this week, especially in the potential absence of Shakir.
Christian Benford: Benford will most likely draw the challenge of defending number one wide receiver Nico Collins. It's hard to expect Benford to be able to lock down Collins, but he must use his size and physicality to slow down the 6’4”, 222 lbs receiver. Benford has only allowed five receptions on 14 targets in coverage this year, but Sunday will be his biggest challenge.
3 Texans Players to Watch
Nico Collins: Collins is the number one threat on the Texans’ offense and must be slowed down. He leads all NFL players with 489 receiving yards through four games; over 100 yards separate him from the next leading receiver. Stroud has targeted Collins 43 times to start the season for 30 catches. He will be a problem for which the Bills will need to have an answer, as not only is he a big play threat at 16.3 ypc, but he also picks up first downs at an elite rate with 25 so far this year.
C.J. Stroud: Stroud is averaging 263.5 ypg to start the year and is coming off a 345-yard and 2-touchdown performance against the Jaguars. Since the injuries to Mixon and Pierce, he has been the offense with 71 pass attempts compared to 34 run plays (57 runs in the first two games.) I anticipate another game of 40+ dropbacks for Stroud this week, and the Bills’ secondary and pass rush must be prepared. Stroud has shown a knack for moving around and throwing on the run early this season to offset the average line play in front of him. Defenders will need to stay disciplined when plays break down.
Azeez Al-Shaair: Al-Shaair has played well in his first season with the Texans. He is a tackling machine, having 163 total last year in Tennessee, and has good instincts in the run game. The one area the Bills can exploit is his below-average coverage in the passing game. If he gets lined up with a tight end or a running back out of the backfield, expect Allen to take advantage.
Matchup of the Game
The Trenches. The Bills' offensive and defensive lines must show up this week and put their poor performances against the Ravens behind them. The Texans have a balanced pass rush, with stars Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter combining for four sacks and seven tackles for a loss. It will be another long day for Josh Allen and the offense if they can get pressure early. They must utilize the running game and quick passing attack to maintain a rhythm.
Defensively, they need to generate pressure on C.J. Stroud and make him uncomfortable like the Vikings did in Week 3, where they sacked Stroud four times and forced two interceptions. The interior of the Texans’ offensive line is where the Bills will need to attack. DaQuan Jones must have his best game of the season. Rookie DeWayne Carter and new addition Zion Logue should expect to see extended playing time due to the injuries at the DT position. I won't be surprised if the Bills also call up two players from the practice squad for added depth. In Von Miller’s absence, A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau will need to step up their game.
