AFC Championship: Breaking Down the Kansas City Chiefs
Key Players
QB Patrick Mahomes - 392/581, 67.5%, 3,928 Passing Yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs, 36 Sacks, 93.5 Passer Rating
RB Kareem Hunt - 200 Carries, 728 Rushing Yards, 3.6 YPC, 7 TDs, 0 Fumbles
TE Travis Kelce - 97 Receptions, 133 Targets, 823 Receiving Yards, 8.5 YPC, 3 TDs, 6 Drops
DT Chris Jones - 37 Tackles, 5 Sacks, 9 TFL, 1 FF
CB Trent McDuffie - 59 Tackles, .5 Sack, 6 TFL, 13 PD, 2 INTs, 1 FF
X-Factor
Strengths
Coaching Staff - The Chiefs have the best NFL coach in the game right now, Andy Reid, and one of the best defensive coordinators, Steve Spagnuolo. They have been together for six years in Kansas City as HC/DC and have made it to the AFC Championship in all six seasons, winning three Super Bowls.
Interior Offensive Line - Creed Humphrey (5 hurries, 0 sacks given up) is arguably the best center in the NFL and plays between two of the best guards in the NFL in Trey Smith (24 hurries 0 sacks given up) and Joe Thuney (11 hurries 0 sacks given up). Thuney has helped with the left tackle issue by moving out and was replaced by Mike Caliendo at LG. In Caliendo’s four starts, including the playoffs, he has given up 9 QB hurries.
Protecting the Football - The Chiefs are tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the regular season with 14, 11 INTs, and 3 Fumbles lost. They haven’t had a turnover since their Week 11 matchup with the Bills. In 19 career playoff games, Mahomes has eight interceptions, and the team has 17 total turnovers.
Pass Rush - The Chiefs generate QB pressure at the 8th highest rate in the NFL and have the 5th highest blitz rate. They sacked C.J. Stroud eight times last week. They use a variety of disguised looks and delayed releases to confuse quarterbacks and create favorable matchups for their front seven.
Scoring Defense - Kansas City allowed 19.2 points per game in the regular season, 4th best in the NFL. They did this by being top 10 in yards per game, rushing yards per game, and red zone scoring.
Weaknesses
Covering Tight Ends - During the regular season, they allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends, 1183, and the third most receptions, 105. In the 16 games that Chiefs’ starters played, an opponent’s tight end was the leading receiver seven times. Quarterbacks are completing nearly 80% (105/132) of their passes to tight ends for a 100+ passer rating versus the Chiefs defense.
Drops - The Chiefs’ pass catchers had the 8th most drops in the NFL this season with 27. 23 of those drops came from the wide receiver and tight end positions.
Running Back Production - The Chiefs finished the regular season 22nd in rushing yards per game at 105.3. Their running backs combined for 1,313 yards at 3.7 ypc and nine touchdowns on the ground.
Tackle Position - Jawaan Taylor and Wanya Morris are graded as two of the worst tackles in the NFL per PFF. Taylor has been called for 18 penalties on the season, Morris 11. Thuney has moved into the LT position for Morris, which has been an improvement but has weakened the interior of the OL. There is a chance that D.J. Humphries will move into the role, but he has only started two games and taken 92 snaps this season.
Third Down Defense - Chiefs’ opponents converted third downs at 43%, 26th in the NFL in the regular season. They allowed Houston to go 10-17 in their Divisional Round matchup.
How They Win
The Chiefs find ways to win games. They were 15-1 in the regular season before their backups got beat in Week 18 by the Denver Broncos. There isn’t a blueprint for their wins. Excluding week 18, they were outgained by at least 99 yards in four games and went 3-1. They lost the turnover battle in four games and went 3-1. In the five games Mahomes failed to eclipse 200 passing yards, they’re 4-1, and in the eight games they failed to rush for 100 yards, they are 7-1.
They play mistake-free football in the playoffs. Since Mahomes became the quarterback, they average less than a turnover a game, scoring 29.3 ppg, with a record of 16-3.
How To Beat Them
Don’t give the Chiefs extra possessions. They wait for teams to beat themselves and capitalize on it. The Chiefs are 14-1 with Mahomes in the playoffs when they finish the game, winning or tied for the turnover battle. They are 2-2 in games that they lost the turnover battle. It’s a small sample size, but that shows how good they are, and teams can’t help them by turning the ball over.
It's easier said than done, but you need to score points. Chiefs’ opponents have averaged 22.9 ppg in the playoffs since 2018. When opponents have scored over 25 points, the Chiefs are 3-3. Under 25, 13-0.
