AFC Championship: Bills vs Chiefs Preview
The Buffalo Bills face the number one seed and back-to-back defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium at 6:30 PM this Sunday on CBS. This will be the fourth matchup in the playoffs between the two teams over the last five seasons. Buffalo lost to the Chiefs in the 2020 AFC Championship and the 2021 and 2023 Divisional Rounds.
The Bills won the AFC East for a fifth consecutive season and secured the number two seed. Their victories over Denver and Baltimore punched their ticket to their second AFC Championship game in five years. Kansas City rolled to a 15-2 record with their only losses in week 11 against the Bills and a week 18 matchup without their starters vs. the Broncos on their way to their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. They secured their seventh straight appearance in the AFC Championship game after defeating the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round 23-14.
Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes is must-watch television. These will be the two best players on the field on Sunday, and they have not disappointed when the lights are brightest. I don’t expect anything different on Sunday night.
Allen & Mahomes H2H Stats in Playoffs
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Cole Bishop - with Taylor Rapp being ruled out, Bishop just jumped to the top of my list as a player to watch. As expected in his first year, he’s had ups and downs this season but filled in admirably against the Ravens last week after Rapp left the game. He gave up one reception on two targets for 5 yards in his 39 defensive snaps. This was a significant improvement from his starts in weeks 15-17. He will likely be matching up with one of the Kansas City Tight Ends in coverage most of the game on Sunday, so we will find out pretty quickly if he is up for the challenge.
James Cook - Cook will be leaned on to get the ground game going as he did versus the Ravens last week. His ability to be patient and let holes develop is critical against an aggressive defense like the Chiefs. Kansas City’s stout run defense has shown some weakness over their last few games. Excluding their week 18 game with the Broncos, they’ve allowed 143 yards per game on the ground in their previous four games—42 yards more than their season average. I expect Cook to play a key role if the Bills plan to head to their first Super Bowl in 30 years.
Curtis Samuel - I was tempted to put a tight end here due to the matchup, but Samuel is a player who I feel is on the cusp of breaking out in a big way. He had his best performances as a Bill vs Kansas City in their regular season meeting and the Divisional Round vs the Broncos. I feel he will have another one this weekend. Kansas City plays a lot of man coverage, and Samuel’s speed and route running make him a prime weapon as a “man-beater” for this offense. He probably won’t draw the top corners in Trent McDuffie or Jaylen Watson. Expect Joe Brady and the Bills to get him lined up with Chamarri Conner for a matchup advantage.
3 Chiefs Players to Watch
Chris Jones - Jones is a game wrecker and has succeeded against the Bills even when he’s not sacking the quarterback. His versatility along the line makes him a difficult matchup for all the linemen. Against the Texans, Jones had 3 pressures, a sack, and 4 total tackles.
Travis Kelce - Kelce turned back the clock in the Divisional Round to the tune of 117 yards on seven catches and a touchdown. His ability to find soft spots in coverage and use leverage to his advantage is a skill few have in the league. Kelce extended his NFL playoff record of 70+ receiving yards to 14 consecutive games against the Texans. The Bills need to prevent him from making it 15 on Sunday.
Xavier Worthy - Worthy’s speed and ability to get the ball in multiple ways make him a dangerous matchup for the Bills. He finished the season on a hot streak, averaging 80 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns in his last three games. Last week, he was held in check with five catches and 37 total yards. His boom-or-bust potential makes him an x-factor for the Chiefs’ offense.
Matchup of the Game
The line of scrimmage. The Bills’ offensive line has been one of the best all season, and it’s continued into the playoffs. They faced the top two pass-rushing defenses and the first and third-ranked run defenses this postseason and managed to give up three sacks and rack up 357 yards on the ground. They need to continue this dominance against the Chiefs’ defensive front.
If Buffalo wants to win this game, their defensive line has to get pressure on Mahomes with their four-man rush and create confusion with their simulated pressures. The tackle positions are the weak link in the armor. Von Miller and Greg Rousseau need to step up.
Prediction: Bills 34 Chiefs 24
Josh Allen. This year is different. Go Bills!
