AFC South Preview

As I continue my trip around the AFC, we will examine the AFC South in this offseason preview. This division is one of the most difficult to figure out because of the many unknowns heading into 2024. Can Houston build on its surprising 2023 campaign? Is Anthony Richardson healthy and ready to be an NFL-caliber starting quarterback? Was 2023 just an off-year for the now highly-paid Trevor Lawrence? Can Will Levis and the Titans turn the page on a new era in Nashville? A surprise team will finish the season at the top of the AFC South. Let's dive into the division Bills fans should familiarize themselves with, as the Bills will face each team this coming season. 

Division Odds Houston Texans +150

Houston enters the 2024 season with a promising outlook, being the slight favorite to repeat as AFC South Champions. The Texans lost to Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs after a surprise playoff run led by Offensive Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. The Texans have bolstered their young receiving corp this offseason by trading a 2nd round pick to the Buffalo Bills for Stefon Diggs. Diggs will join a crowded wide receiver room returning Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III, along with the tight ends Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan, and newcomer running back Joe Mixon. There are a lot of mouths to feed and keep happy for a young quarterback in Stroud. There is potential for a high-flying offense, or it can backfire if guys are unwilling to sacrifice their stats for the team's greater good. I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans move a player like Woods before the season starts, whether by trade or release. The Texans' defense added Danielle Hunter in free agency, which should offset the loss of Jonathan Greenard and his 12.5 sacks, to line up opposite of returning Defensive Rookie of The Year, Will Anderson. The Texans hope to build off their finish to last season, but seeing how they can keep everyone happy on offense will be interesting. They will have a target on their back heading into this season, along with playing a first-place schedule that is one of the more difficult on paper going into the season. The Texans will face some adversity this season and squeak into the playoffs, but they will not repeat as AFC South Champions. 

Off. Rookie to Watch: OT Blake Fisher
Def. Rookie to Watch: S Calen Bullock
Playoff Prediction: Wild Card
Face Bills Week 5 in Houston

Division Odds Jacksonville Jaguars +200

The Jaguars finished 2023 going 1-5 over their last 6, losing the division and missing the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence and Josh Hines-Allen signed contract extensions worth $425 million in the offseason to secure their futures with the franchise. The contract numbers are staggering, but as they enter 2024, expectations are high, with a retooled offense bolstered by new additions Gabe Davis and Mitch Morse and drafted highly touted wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr in the first round. Defensively, they added Arik Armstead in free agency and drafted a pair of DTs from LSU, Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson, to beef up the interior of their defensive line. The defense should improve with Hines-Allen locked up, Travon Walker entering year three off a 10-sack season, and a dynamic interior linebacker group. A healthy Christian Kirk, reception leader Evan Engram, and Travis Etienne also return to a team looking to contend in the AFC again. It won’t be easy, as they enter 2024 with the 8th hardest-strength of schedule and open the season with four straight games against 2023 playoff teams, week 3 in Buffalo. Those games will be pivotal before they head to London for back-to-back games in week 6 and 7. Doug Pederson must figure out how to keep the offense consistent and give Etienne some support at the running back position. Etienne saw his carries and receptions increase by almost 30% in 2023 as he exceeded 300 touches in a season for the first time in his college or NFL career. Behind Etienne is 2nd year-back Tank Bigsby, who was underwhelming in his rookie season, followed by D'Ernest Johnson and rookie 5th-round pick Keilan Robinson. On paper, Jacksonville has a strong roster, but I think they will miss the playoffs again in 2024. The difficult start to their schedule will find them under .500 early and struggling as the season progresses. 

Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Def. Rookie to Watch: DT Jordan Jefferson
Playoff Prediction: No
Face Bills Week 3 in Buffalo on MNF Doubleheader

Division Odds Indianapolis Colts +275

The Colts had a disappointing end to the 2023 season. After losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson after his 4th career game, they were ravaged by injuries at the end of the year, with Jonathan Taylor and Braden Smith missing critical games during their playoff push. The team looks poised to contend for the AFC South this year with Richardson at the helm and a strong supporting cast around him. The Colts drafted Adonai Mitchell in the 2nd round after his surprising drop in the draft to bolster a strong receiver group of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs. They return one of the best offensive lines in football to protect Richardson and open running lanes for Taylor. The question and key to their success will be whether Taylor can stay healthy and another running back steps up to help take some of the carries. The offense will need to help take some pressure off their defense, which has given up the most points in the AFC the last 2 seasons. On paper, the defense looks strong up front, with Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner welcoming promising edge rusher Laiatu Latu to the fold. The secondary leans heavily on Julian Blackmon and Kenny Moore and will need some young players to step up from their recent draft picks. Three things need to happen for the Colts to be successful in 2024: Richardson and Taylor stay healthy, and the defense takes a step forward. I believe they will, paired with one of the easier strength-of-schedules in the NFL, and that's why I have the Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South.

Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Adonai Mitchell
Def. Rookie to Watch: EDGE Laiatu Latu
Playoff Prediction: AFC South Division Winner
Face Bills Week 10 in Indianapolis 

Division Odds Tennessee Titans +900

The Tennessee Titans had a bad 2023 season, which led to the departure of head coach Mike Vrabel after six seasons and two AFC South crowns in Nashville. New head coach Brian Callahan has the task of unlocking the potential of 2nd-year quarterback Will Levis and turning the page from long-time running back Derrick Henry, who left in free agency. The Titans had a busy offseason that saw them trade for L'Jarius Sneed from Kansas City, sign Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard, Chidobe Awuzie, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Jamal Adams in free agency, and draft JC Latham and T’Vondre Sweat. They have given Levis all the weapons a young quarterback could need with their offseason additions to pair with DeAndre Hopkins and promising tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. Can the offensive line come together with the new additions and develop into a strong unit? They 2024 as one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, so they will need to improve quickly to see what they have in Levis and this offense. The Defense should be improved with the secondary additions made in the offseason. I want to see how they will utilize the mammoth rookie Sweat on the defensive line next to Jefferey Simmons and edge rusher Harold Landry. Titans fans should be excited about the youth on their team and the transition that they are currently in, but I do not expect it to translate to a playoff birth in 2024.

Off. Rookie to Watch: OT JC Latham
Def. Rookie to Watch: DT T’Vondre Sweat
Playoff Prediction: No
Face Bills Week 7 in Buffalo