AFC West Preview
Similar to how I looked at the AFC North and AFC South, each preview will consist of a team’s Vegas odds heading into 2024, how they ended 2023, some new additions to the team, rookies to watch, and how I expect they will finish in 2024. The AFC West, home of the back-to-back Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, and the most confident division prediction I will make. Surprise, the Chiefs will repeat as AFC West Champions for a ninth straight year in 2024. The real question will be how the other 3 teams fare with two new head coaches and potentially two new starting quarterbacks in the division. Can anyone challenge Kansas City to keep them from locking up the one seed in the AFC?
Division Odds Kansas City Chiefs -200
The Chiefs enter the 2024 season fresh off a second consecutive Super Bowl victory with their eyes on a three-peat. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce welcome two new additions, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, to a wide receiver room that returns Mecole Hardman, Rashee Rice, and Skyy Moore. These additions should bolster the offense, which saw its worst season in 2023 since Mahomes became the starter. Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire return in the backfield, with embattled wide receiver Kadarius Toney joining them early in training camp as he attempts to keep a role on the team as a weapon out of the backfield. The Chiefs return a Top 10 offensive line unit that will have competition at the LT spot between second-year player Wanya Morris and second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia. Defensively, the Chiefs locked up All-Pro DT Chris Jones with a five-year extension this offseason and traded away lockdown CB L'Jarius Sneed. Otherwise, Steve Spagnuolo’s number-two-ranked defense returns intact, with the only question of who will step up to replace Sneed’s spot between Nazeeh Johnson and Jaylen Watson. The Chiefs will win the AFC West for a ninth consecutive season in 2024. What interests me is how much of a challenge they will face within the division. Will they navigate through it and reclaim the number one seed in the AFC?
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Xavier Worthy
Def. Rookie to Watch: S Jaden Hicks
Playoff Prediction: AFC West Division Winner
Face Bills Week 11 in Buffalo 4:25 PM
Division Odds Los Angeles Chargers +300
Welcome back to the NFL, Jim Harbaugh. This is one of the best situations a new head coach can step into in the NFL. The Chargers have a solid offensive line that was improved with their first-round pick, Joe Alt, and a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. Harbaugh will have his work cut out for him in other areas such as wide receiver and the secondary. The Chargers released veteran receiver Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen to Chicago in the offseason, resetting a group now led by Josh Palmer, DJ Chark, second-year Quentin Johnston, and highly touted rookie Ladd McConkey. Johnston was inconsistent in his first year out of TCU, but early reports out of camp are that he has improved from last year. McConkey should see a lot targets in this offense that will be looking for players to step up in Allen and Williams's absence. The running game should take a step forward under Harbaugh, which will help Herbert and the passing game. Free agent signings Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins join rookie Kimani Vidal in the backfield, replacing long-tenured Austin Ekeler. Defensively, they must get better against the pass. Last season, they gave up the league's third-highest passing yards and eighth-highest points. Harbaugh and the new DC, Jesse Minter, will need to prioritize this if they expect to challenge the Chiefs for the division. They return talented veterans, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel to lead a group that disappointed under Brandon Staley’s tenure. There is reason to be hopeful in LA with Harbaugh at the helm, but they won't return to the playoffs in 2024.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Ladd McConkey
Def. Rookie to Watch: LB Junior Colson
Playoff Prediction: No
Division Odds Las Vegas Raiders +1000
The Raiders enter 2024 with a new head coach, Antonio Pierce, and question marks at quarterback and with their star wide receiver. Unable to move up in the 2024 draft, the Raiders could not secure one of the top five quarterback prospects. Instead, they drafted one of the more intriguing athletes available out of Georgia, TE Brock Bowers, to pair with second-year TE Michael Mayer. The question remains: who will pass the ball to this tandem along with the top wideout, Davante Adams? The Raiders released quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer in the offseason, along with veteran receiver Hunter Renfrow. Aidan O'Connell returns after finishing the last 11 games of 2023 with free agent signing Gardner Minshew to compete for the starting role. Minshew’s 2-year $25 million ($15 mill gtd) contract leads you to believe he was signed to start and not be a backup. The uncertainty of the position on top of the performance in 2023 has led many to believe Adams is pushing for an exit, with the New York Jets being the choice of preference. Veteran running back Josh Jacobs left in free agency, leaving the backfield to third-year back Zamir White and free agent signing Alexander Mattison. This tandem brings a mix of speed and power to the backfield as a two-headed attack. The Raiders made a big splash in free agency by signing DT Christian Wilkins to a $100+ million contract. Wilkins should alleviate some of the pressure on star rusher, Maxx Crosby. They also signed former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup, only for him to retire before the start of training camp. With their lack of roster turnover and murky outlook with their long-term plans at the quarterback position, I don't see them competing for a playoff spot. If they plan to draft one in 2025 and aren't signing Tom Brady, they should move Adams and acquire draft capital to help build the roster. Hopefully, they can continue building on the culture that Antonio Pierce has implemented since he took over the reins.
Off. Rookie to Watch: TE Brock Bowers
Def. Rookie to Watch: LB Tommy Eichenberg
Playoff Prediction: No
Division Odds Denver Broncos +1400
The Broncos enter the 2024 season with the most dead cap space in the NFL (Bills 2nd) after moving on from Russell Wilson and his ill-advised contract signed in 2022. It was a busy offseason in Denver as they released veteran safety Justin Simmons and traded former first-round pick Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland for multiple late-round picks in the 2024 draft. Sean Payton will be working with veteran Jarrett Stidham, who started the final 2 weeks of the 2023 season, first-round pick Bo Nix, and former first-round pick Zach Wilson, who they acquired from the Jets this offseason, to improve the 2023 26th-ranked offense. Early reports out of camp are that a “leaner” Javonte Williams will be getting some competition from second-year back Jaleel McLaughlin, who is looking to build off his 2023 campaign, where he averaged 5.4 yards a carry. The Broncos drafted speedster, Troy Franklin out of Oregon, in the 4th round of this year’s draft to pair with Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Mims Jr. If the team stumbles out of the gates early, be on the lookout for Sutton’s name to be on the trade market as he has been the subject of trade rumors in the past and would like a new contract. The Broncos made some moves to address their defense this offseason in hopes of improving their 29th-ranked 371 yards/game average from 2023. They traded for DL John Franklin-Myers from the Jets and signed CB Levi Wallace and LB Cody Barton, who are expected to compete for starting spots. Star CB Patrick Surtain is another name to keep an eye on if the Broncos struggle early. His name surfaced as a possible trade candidate last year and it could again as Denver appears headed towards a multiyear rebuild. Broncos fans should want Bo Nix to win the starting quarterback role and generate some stability at the position to start their rebuild. Being paired with Sean Payton should help his development if he is going to become a quality NFL starter. There are some young pieces for Denver to build around as they recover from the loss of draft capital in the Russell Wilson trade that has set them back for the last three years. This year will be a step back from a record standpoint but a step forward in roster development. They will not be a playoff team in 2024, and I won't be surprised if they are sellers around the trade deadline.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Troy Franklin
Def. Rookie to Watch: EDGE Jonah Elliss
Playoff Prediction: No
