AFC East Preview
Wrapping up my preseason divisional previews is the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills snatched the division from the Miami Dolphins in week 18 last year to continue their divisional reign. I expect a similar challenge if the Bills hope to win their 5th straight division crown. I covered some new faces in the division earlier this offseason but will go into more detail on each team’s new players, offensive and defensive outlooks, and how I think their seasons will end. Will the Bills repeat in 2024 and prove the doubters wrong? Did Miami do enough this offseason to get over the hump? Are Aaron Rodgers and the Jets for real? What will New England look like now that Bill Belichick is gone? All that and more in my final division preview, the AFC East.
Division Odds Buffalo Bills +125
National media members have written off the Bills; whether they will admit it or not, the players and the organization are well aware. Early in training camp, comments from players and even Brandon Beane lead me to believe there is a chip on their shoulder entering this season that may have been missing the last two years. The departures from Buffalo this offseason were big names that have been foundational pieces since Sean McDermott took the helm in 2017. Brandon Beane’s interview with Tyler Dunne earlier this summer revealed something interesting that I feel was reflective of the Bills moves this offseason, “You’re not walking out there with 53 guys with the same scars.” I interpreted this as the Bills needing to move on from some of the players who have been here for all their postseason shortcomings, notably the 13-second game vs Kansas City.
The Bills offense will continue to be a strength for the team as they adapt to their “everybody eats” mantra that the players have bought in on. New receivers Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins have quickly developed relationships with Josh Allen. Their additions and the return of Khalil Shakir, along with the competition between Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Tyrell Shavers, and KJ Hamler for the final spots, will round out the deepest receiver group the Bills have seen since Josh Allen became quarterback. Bills fans must keep realistic expectations with Coleman and Shakir and not expect either player to replace Stefon Diggs' production. Coleman needs to continue developing as a wide receiver and will be given plenty of opportunities in the Bills offense. Shakir has been productive with limited opportunities since arriving in Buffalo, so seeing his role expand will be something to watch. Dalton Kincaid showed in his rookie season that he can be a number-one target. The return of a healthy Dawson Knox paired with Kincaid will open up the offense under Joe Brady. The running back position will be fun to watch in Brady’s offense. James Cook took off in the second half of 2023, and Ty Johnson emerged as a reliable backup. Adding Ray Davis should only enhance the running back position’s usage in the passing game. The transition of Connor McGovern to center will be something to watch in the preseason as the Bills offensive line will look to build off their impressive 2023 campaign.
Defensively, the Bills will need some time to develop chemistry and communication. The loss of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in the secondary and as leaders is significant, but new players must step up and fill their roles. It appears Taylor Rapp and Terrel Bernard have taken some of this on, but it will take time for everyone to build cohesion. The front seven brings along some questions with Matt Milano's return and Von Miller looking fully healed from his 2022 ACL tear. Milano and Bernard will look to build off their short tenure in 2023 of being one of the best LB duos in the NFL. The retooled defensive line is a group that I am optimistic about. Free agent additions Casey Toohill, Dawuane Smoot, and Austin Johnson bring depth and experience to a group returning all their starters from 2023. Rookies Dewayne Carter and Javon Soloman will make an impact this year (Solomon is my dark horse for Defensive Rookie of the Year.) I expect Ed Oliver to continue his dominance, with a healthy DaQuan Jones returning to his side, and Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa will take another step in their young careers. The emergence of Rousseau and Epenesa will allow Miller to move into more of a pass specialist role and help maintain his health as he enters year 14. I expect the Bills to repeat as AFC East champs in 2024. I didn’t feel this way before training camp started, but there is a different feel to this team than what I have seen in years past, which makes me confident that they will come together and win their 5th straight division crown.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Keon Coleman
Def. Rookie to Watch: EDGE Javon Soloman
Playoff Prediction: AFC East Division Winner
Division Odds Miami Dolphins +200
The 2023 Dolphins took the league by storm, scoring 130 points, including a 70 spot, in their first three games. The Bills flipped the script on them in their week 4 matchup, winning 48-20 to take the AFC East division lead at 3-1. This was the last time the Bills sat in first place until their week 18 matchup in Miami, when Buffalo won 21-14, snatching the division crown away. Miami entered the offseason with a plan to address the roster holes that got exposed at the end of the year and in the playoffs.
They relieved DC Vic Fangio of his duties and brought in Anthony Weaver. They didn't re-sign Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel, Brandon Jones, Connor Williams, or Robert Hunt. They released long-time corner Xavien Howard, LB Jerome Baker, and Emmanuel Ogbah, only to bring him back after the unexpected Shaquil Barrett retirement. The Dolphins used the freed-up cap space to revamp their defense and signed LB Jordyn Brooks, CB Kendall Fuller, DL Calais Campbell, Teair Tart, and former Bills’ safeties Jordan Poyer and Siran Neal. Players seem to be taking to the new approach that Weaver has brought in this offseason, but this will be the third DC and scheme the Dolphins have had in three years. The defense returns key pieces in Zach Sieler, David Long Jr., Jevon Holland, and Jalen Ramsey. Star edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are recovering from serious injuries that ended their 2023 seasons prematurely. Their status for starting the 2024 season is currently up in the air. The Dolphins bolstered their defensive line depth in the draft with first-round pick Chop Robinson and fifth-round selection Mohamed Kamara. Both are expected to see increased playing time to start the season. Will the signing of Campbell and Tart offset the loss of what Wilkins brought to this defense in the last 5 years?
Offensively, the Dolphins are in a similar spot to last year. Tua Tagovailoa has received his new contract, but the offensive line is still a liability for a team looking to end its 24-year playoff win drought. In the offseason, they brought in C Aaron Brewer, TE Jonnu Smith, and WR Odell Beckham Jr to fill some vacancies. Beckham was signed to fill the WR 3 spot behind explosive pass catchers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with rookie Malik Washington also expected to be a factor. The signing of Jonnu Smith as a run-blocking tight end makes sense for a rushing attack with a three-headed attack in Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, and rookie burner Jaylen Wright. On paper, Brewer is not an upgrade at the pivot, so the loss of Connor Williams and the return of Liam Eichenberg, Isaiah Wynn, and Robert Jones does not bring with it a lot of confidence in an area that needs upgrading. Terron Armstead is expected to play LT after missing 7 games in 2023 and failing to play 50% of the snaps in 2 others. They will need him to stay healthy and to get improved play from the interior of their offensive line if they want to remain a lethal running attack and keep Tua protected. Like Buffalo, Miami is entering 2024 with a new defensive coordinator, some roster turnover, and high expectations, including Super Bowl aspirations. The division will come down to Buffalo and Miami again, with Buffalo narrowly winning. Miami has proven they can stack wins against lesser opponents. Until they start beating upper-echelon teams, I don't see them knocking the Bills off their AFC East pedestal.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Malik Washington
Def. Rookie to Watch: EDGE Chop Robinson
Playoff Prediction: Wildcard Team
Face Bills Week 2 in Miami on TNF and Week 9 in Buffalo
Division Odds New York Jets +300
The New York Jets enter 2024 the same way they entered 2023, with a lot of hype and little evidence to support it. Aaron Rodgers returns after rupturing his Achilles on the 4th snap of his inaugural season in New Jersey against the Bills. Head Coach Robert Salah is on the hot seat, and the moves made this offseason show it. The Jets sent former first-round pick Zach Wilson to the Broncos and let a promising edge rusher, Bryce Huff, walk in free agency
and sign with the Eagles. The Jets then traded for his replacement, Haason Reddick, from the Eagles. Reddick was looking for a new contract before the trade and has yet to report for any offseason activities, including training camp with the Jets. The Wilson move was necessary. The Hall decision, and the following trade for Reddick, was one that a desperate organization looking to “win now” makes.
The Jets' defense will be one of the best in the NFL in 2024. They have an elite secondary led by cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner. They added one of the more interesting NFL prospects in the draft, 5th-round pick Qwan’tez Stiggers, out of the CFL. Stiggers is only the third player drafted by an NFL team since 1967 who did not attend college. Their front seven is the deepest and most talented in the AFC and arguably the NFL. C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams form the best linebacker duo in the NFL behind one of the best defensive lines. Quinnen Williams returns from back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons alongside new addition Javon Kinlaw and key reserve Solomon Thomas. The losses of Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers in the offseason opened opportunities for former 1st round picks Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald. The contract situation with Reddick will be something to keep an eye on. The decision to let Huff leave and the subsequent trade for Reddick was viewed as replacing future potential with instant production with Reddick’s 50.5 sacks over the last 4 seasons. Finalizing his contract to avoid missing games will be critical for the defense’s success.
Offensively, the Jets needed to strengthen their line and add more weapons to help rising stars Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. They signed former Chargers’ WR Mike Williams, who is recovering from an ACL tear that should be healed by the start of the 2024 season. They drafted a promising rookie in Malachi Corley and have been linked to a former teammate of Rodgers’s in Las Vegas, Davante Adams. They addressed the offensive line in free agency with veterans Tyron Smith and John Simpson and made a trade for Morgan Moses from the Ravens. Smith and Moses are towards the end of their careers and are coming off of seasons in which they missed multiple games due to injury. They used their first-round pick on a highly touted tackle out of Penn State, Olu Fashanu, but he is not expected to start immediately. The Jets are relying on the veteran additions to build chemistry quickly with returning linemen Joe Tippmann and former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker, who has missed 23 of the 51 games in his career since being drafted in the 2021 draft. PFF has the unit ranked 5th heading into the season based on the names of the players brought in. The fact is the Jets are relying on 3 players to remain healthy for 17th games when they have not proven capable of that in their careers.
3700 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 games. These are Aaron Rodgers’ stats from his last season in Green Bay when they went 8-9. Now, Rodgers is returning from the worst injury of his career while entering his 20th NFL season with a group of players he has never played a game with. Their defense will be their strength, but their offense will not be able to support them in the end. The offense lacking chemistry, the health of the roster, and the “noise” that seems to surround this team since Rodgers’ arrival will be why the Jets will not make the playoffs in 2024.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Malachi Corley
Def. Rookie to Watch: CB Qwan’tez Stiggers
Playoff Prediction: No
Face Bills Week 6 in NY on MNF and Week 17 in Buffalo
Division Odds New England Patriots +2000
The end of an era in Foxboro with the departure of Bill Belichick after 24 seasons as Head Coach. The Patriots enter 2024 in a complete rebuild that they have been putting off since Tom Brady left the team and delayed with the false hope Mac Jones provided them (I'm convinced that the 2021 wind game in Buffalo was the beginning of the end for both Belichick and Jones.) First-year head coach Jerod Mayo and new VP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf take over a team that has not made the playoffs since 2021, tied for their longest drought since 1999-2000. They used their first-round pick on the talented, yet raw, quarterback Drake Maye, out of UNC. They used 7 of their 8 draft picks on the offensive side of the ball, two of which were on promising wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. The early story out of camp is about Maye’s struggles with the offense that currently has him behind veteran Jacoby Brissett on the depth chart. Third-year quarterback Bailey Zappe and fellow rookie Joe Milton round out the depth chart.
New England has prioritized re-signing and extending their players this offseason to build a solid roster core around quarterback of the future Drake Maye. Anfernee Jennings, Christian Barmore, David Andrews, Hunter Henry, Josh Uche, Jabrill Peppers, Kendrick Bourne, Kyle Dugger, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Davon Godchaux all signed new contracts this offseason to extend their careers as Patriots. Alex Austin and Christian Gonzalez are two young CBs to watch. Gonzalez was highly touted out of Oregon when the Patriots drafted him in 2023 before an injury ended his rookie season early. Austin was drafted by the Bills and cut at the end of training camp. He was picked up by the Texans and was released late last season when New England signed him. He has had a strong spring and the potential to start across from Gonzalez. Rookie CB Marcellas Dial has flashed in camp, making the competition for CB2 more interesting. The Patriots' defense has a chance at being elite under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo, but the offense has the potential to hold them back. Due to a recent medical finding, star DT Christian Barmore will be out, and there isn't a timetable for his return. Barnore’s absence will be a significant loss for the team after his breakout 2023 campaign. The loss of Barmore makes the ongoing contract dispute with star rusher Matt Judon an even larger priority for the team. It’s rumored that this will be resolved before the season starts to keep him paired with promising second-year player Keion White.
The Patriots offense will struggle in 2024. How badly they struggle will depend on the offensive line. The interior of their line remains intact, with Michael Onwenu and Sidy Sow returning alongside David Andrews. The tackle positions remain up for grabs with the potential to play rookie Caedan Wallace at LT, who spent his time at Penn St playing RT. Fresh off his new contract, Stevenson will look to rebound from a disappointing 2023, where injuries limited him to 12 games. The cohesion of the offensive line will be vital for him to return to his 2022 dominance, as well as for the success of the new signal caller. Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, and Kendrick Bourne return as the leading pass-catchers from a dismal group with inconsistent QB play in 2023. Rookies Baker and Polk will compete with FA signing K.J. Osborn and 2nd-year players Kayshon Boutte and Tyquan Thornton to round out the receiver group. Veterans JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jalen Reagor appear to be cut candidates, barring a surprise or injuries. The 2024 season will be essential in building a new culture in New England under a new regime and quarterback. There will not be a playoff berth again in 2024, as I expect New England to be in the running for the top pick in the 2025 draft.
Off. Rookie to Watch: WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Def. Rookie to Watch: CB Marcellas Dial
Playoff Prediction: No
Face Bills Week 16 in Buffalo and Week 18 in New England
