Draft Grades Over The Years
Draft grades have become a popular staple amongst NFL analysts following the draft. I have mixed feelings about them for a few reasons. Teams are drafting based on the work of their personnel department and will not be based on the rankings of the analysts giving the grades. They are interesting to read and see how the national media interprets the selections. I felt it would be interesting to review some draft grades received by the Bills over the last decade and see how they have held up now that the players have seen the field. The rule of thumb I’ve read is that you can't truly grade a draft class until they've completed their 3rd season. I will look at the 2017, 2019, and 2021 draft classes and give my opinion on the grade. I will be focusing on the player’s overall career, whether that has been with the Bills, or elsewhere. I am using the same three websites each year for continuity.
2017 Draft: A
(27) Tre’Davious White DB LSU
(37) Zay Jones WR East Carolina
(63) Dion Dawkins OT Rutgers
(163) Matt Milano LB Boston College
(171) Nathan Peterman QB Pittsburgh
(195) Tanner Vallejo LB Boise St
This grade is accurate due to the success of a few. White and Milano, have been All-Pros at their positions, with Dawkins being a 3x Pro Bowler and currently on his 3rd contract with the team. The elephant in the room is the trade the Bills made with Kansas City moving back to 27. We all know that trade led to the Chiefs selecting Patrick Mahomes and the rest is history. White is now with the LA Rams after multiple season-ending injuries. White’s personality and play on the field made him a fan favorite early on in his Bills career. Zay Jones never worked out in Buffalo, was traded to the Raiders, and is now with the Arizona Cardinals after 2 years in Jacksonville. The Peterman and Vallejo picks are bad in hindsight. Peterman had a lot of hype coming out of Pittsburgh and may be best known for throwing 5 interceptions in the first half of his first career start. He is currently with the New Orleans Saints after stints with the Raiders and Bears. Vallejo spent one year in Buffalo and was released before the 2018 season started. He is a free agent after stops in Arizona, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Washington.
Mock Draft Database was down on White - C, Jones - F, and Milano - D. They gave an A on the Peterman pick. Interesting grades seeing how their careers have turned out
CBS liked the White and Jones picks and thought Dawkins would be a future RT. Peterman was labeled as a “potential starter down the road”
Bills Banter Grade: A
NFL.com Grade NFL Mock Draft Database Grades CBS Sports Grade
2019 Draft: A-
(9) - Ed Oliver DT Houston
(38) Cody Ford OT Oklahoma
(74) Devin Singletary RB Florida Atlantic
(96) Dawson Knox TE Mississippi
(147) Vosean Joseph LB Florida
(181) Jaquan Johnson S Miami
(225) Darryl Johnson Edge North Carolina A&T
(228) Tommy Sweeney TE Boston College
This grade is too high. Oliver and Knox received second contracts from the Bills with Oliver establishing himself as a top-tier DT in the league. Knox isn’t a full-time starter at this point but is still a good TE and has a good role for the Bills. Ford never established a consistent role with the Bills and was eventually traded to Arizona for a 5th-round pick. He’s currently on the Bengals entering his second season with the team. Singletary was a solid RB (20 TOT TDs) while in Buffalo. An argument could be made that his strengths weren’t utilized well. Singletary left Buffalo in FA and is now with the NYG after a season in Houston.
Vosean Joseph, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson, and Tommy Sweeney didn’t receive second contracts from the Bills and are all currently out of the NFL. Darryl Johnson was traded to Carolina for a 6th-round pick that was eventually used to draft Christian Benford.
Mock Draft Database gave A grades on Oliver and J. Johnson. Singletary and J. Johnson received D grades
CBS had Ford and Joseph as good picks. Oliver was compared to Aaron Donald and Singletary as a good pass-catching back for Josh Allen.
Bills Banter Grade: B
NFL.com Grade NFL Mock Draft Database Grades CBS Sports Grade
2021 NFL Draft: A-
(30) Gregory Rousseau DE Miami
(61) Carlos “Boogie” Basham Jr. DE Wake Forest
(93) Spencer Brown OT Northern Iowa
(161) Tommy Doyle OT Miami of Ohio
(203) Marquez Steveneson WR Houston
(212) Damar Hamlin S Pittsburgh
(213) Rachad Wildgoose CB Wisconsin
(236) Jack Anderson G Texas Tech
This grade is too high. The Bills have picked up Rousseau’s 5th year option and Spencer Brown appears to be a legitimate starting RT in the NFL after a bumpy start to his career. I remember the Basham pick at the time being a head-scratcher because they had just selected Rousseau and I had never heard of Basham. In hindsight, this was a big miss in Beane’s draft history. Creed Humphrey went 2 picks later. Basham was a player who never fit the Bills style of defense and was traded to the Giants before the 2023 season for a 2025 5th-round pick. Doyle is lauded as a swing tackle for the Bills that they're high on but, he has been injury-prone. Stevenson was never able to establish a role in Buffalo, he was cut in 2022 and is currently in the UFL. Wildgoose was cut and signed to the practice squad where he later got signed to the NY Jets. After a stint in Washington, he is currently out of the NFL. Hamlin has established himself as a reserve safety on the Bills. He saw a lot of playing time in 2022 before suffering from cardiac arrest and nearly losing his life. Anderson was cut and signed to the practice squad before his rookie season started and later picked up by the Philadelphia Eagles. After a stint with the Giants, he is going into his second season with the Indianapolis Colts.
Mock Draft Database gave an A grade on Rousseau and a D grade for Tommy Doyle as a “reach.” The remaining picks were B’s or C’s
CBS Sports labeled Basham as the Bills’ best pick, and Brown as the Bills’ worst pick. Quite the opposite in the way their careers have started.
Bills Banter Grade: B-
NFL.com Grade NFL Mock Draft Database Grades CBS Sports Grade
This is a small sample size of 3 drafts since Sean McDermott became the Head Coach for the Buffalo Bills. The 2017 draft was led by Doug Whaley, and his staff, but he was let go 10 days later, and the Brandon Beane Era began. Only the Bills scouts and personnel department know what they're looking for when they make these selections, but it is interesting to look back at how things played out and reflect on it with the information we have now.
