Five Trade Scenarios For the Bills
The offseason came earlier than any of us had hoped, and it has quickly become a rumor mill of who wants to be traded, along with some confirmed availability of big name players. Last week, Brandon Beane said, “I don't know many teams that are going to hand you a Chris Jones or a game wrecker.” This week, it sounds like there is an opportunity for the Bills to throw their hat in the ring to get one of those game wreckers, given the trade request made by Myles Garrett Monday from the Cleveland Browns.
Below, I will list five trade scenarios for the Bills this offseason that would all make sense based on their current needs. I don’t know if Buffalo will make a splash move like this, but it does sound like they feel the pressure to bring in a difference maker that will move the needle, and I don’t see one of those players available in free agency that would be worth the price that they command. These trades would be in a vacuum, and under the assumption that if it's made, the other trades won't be, that will be the reason for seeing the same picks or players used in multiple trade scenarios.
Blockbuster Deals
Myles Garrett - This is the biggest name available on defense via trade since Khalil Mack in 2018. Garrett has two years remaining on his 5-year/$125 million extension with a cap hit of $19.7 and $20.4 million in 2025 and 2026 before the contract voids in 2027. There are a few reasons Bills fans should have some optimism here. Garrett doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract, but he stated that he wants to contend for a Super Bowl in his trade request. He can refuse to sign an extension with the team trading for him, which would significantly lower the asking price of a team getting a potentially unhappy player for only two seasons. Buffalo has the money to make a deal work, and they have the capital. Their cap situation is in a better spot than last offseason, and with a few moves and extensions of their players, they can quickly get in the black.
In this scenario, Buffalo would sign Garrett to a 3-year/$110 million extension, tying him to the team through the 2029 season. I don’t believe Cleveland would want players in return. Their salary cap is tricky after a trade like this along with the Deshaun Watson situation. Trading Garrett would signify the start of a rebuild and draft picks would be needed.
Update: Signed extension with Cleveland on 3/9: 4-year/$160 million, $123 million guaranteed
Maxx Crosby - Crosby has two years remaining on his current deal and is two years younger than Garrett but is coming off of a down year after three straight seasons making an All-Pro team. Crosby has expressed frustrations with losing and not having guaranteed money left on his deal. As Crosby looks ahead to his seventh season with Las Vegas, he will start the year with his 5th Head Coach, Defensive Coordinator, and General Manager since being drafted. It may be time for him to have a new start somewhere with more stability.
If Buffalo were to trade for Crosby, an extension somewhere in the range of 4-year/$120 million with guaranteed money upfront would be needed. That would have him under contract through the 2030 season.
Update: Signed extension with Las Vegas on 3/5: 4-year/$106.5 million, $91.5 million guaranteed
D.K. Metcalf - Metcalf could be a cap casualty heading into the final year of his 3-year/$72 million extension with the Seahawks. Only 27, Metcalf is entering the prime of his career and would be a significant addition to the Bills offense at, what should be a reasonable price, given Seattle’s current salary cap situation. Making this move now saves them nearly $11 million, a significant number for a team entering the offseason $25 million over the cap. Buffalo could then work out an extension to help lower the cap figure and lock up their WR1 for the foreseeable future.
Editor Note: 2026 3rd Round Pick - Buffalo doesn’t have a 2025 3rd Round Pick
Update: Traded to Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2025 2nd Round Pick on 3/9: Signed 5-year/$150 million contract
Needle Movers
Cooper Kupp - the Rams informed Kupp that they will be moving on from him before the 2025 season. His ability to get open and separate from defenders is something that the Bills offense lacks. He wouldn’t need to be the number one option in the offense here, which should help with some of the wear and tear he has dealt with the past few seasons. Kupp has two years remaining on his 3-year/$80.1 million contract extension. This would be the biggest holdup in a deal with the Bills. They are more likely to wait and see if he gets released and then make a move. L.A. benefits from a trade that would save them $12.5 million against the cap compared to $5 million if released. A post 6/1 release or trade would save them $15 or $20 million. Buffalo may be best suited to wait and see here.
Jeffery Simmons - Simmons is another player who needs a change of scenery, and the new management in Tennessee may be willing to make a deal. Simmons has three years remaining on his 4-year/$94 million extension. Simmons won’t command the price of a player like Crosby or Garrett, and Buffalo may have some young players on their roster that would benefit the Titans. This contract carries Simmons through his age-30 season. Performing well over his next the remainder of this contract could set him up for another large pay day.
Bonus Trade: Post June 1st Scenario
This trade would have to happen after June 1st so that New Orleans could reap the salary cap benefits of moving Tyrann Mathieu. Trading him after 6/1 saves them $7.25 million. Any transactions involving Mathieu before then do more harm than good for the team, who has the worst salary cap situation in the NFL. The real prize for the Bills is gaining Chris Olave, who is entering his fourth NFL season after a forgettable 2024 season where he only played in eight games and finished the year on IR. I am not saying there is a high probability of this trade happening, but this is the kind of deal Brandon Beane should be looking to make. Find a vulnerable team and take advantage of it. New Orleans is changing head coaches, making their unstable quarterback situation more murky heading into 2025. Their dead cap situation has been kicked down the road for over a decade. How will they sell a promising wide receiver looking for a pay raise on his second contract to commit to a team in their current state? A.J. Epenesa and Ryan Van Demark would be day 1 starters for the Saints on team-friendly deals to help them at positions of need. This trade would give both teams things that they need. Buffalo needs a better answer at the safety position alongside Taylor Rapp. Mathieu played FS in New Orleans and is an upgrade over who the Bills rolled out in 2024. Olave gives the Bills a dynamic young receiver under team control for two more seasons before a pay raise is due. This move helps the Saints shed some salary without being crippled by another massive dead cap number and gives them draft capital and young players at two key positions.
