Free Agency Review
It has been four weeks since free agency started, and we are two weeks away from the first round of the NFL Draft. I do not anticipate a lot of roster activity between now and the draft starting for the Bills, so I feel now is a good time to reflect on what they have done over the last month. In previous blogs, I touched on the additions made to the defensive line, secondary, and the running back and wide receiver groups in more detail. In this blog, I will review the free agency with all the new contracts signed this offseason, new additions, including my three favorites, the players lost from the 2024 roster, Brandon Beane’s “offseason grade,” and a preview of the upcoming draft.
New Contracts
2025 New Contracts Signed
Favorite Signings
My feelings on this have shifted since free agency started and the first wave of signings. Joey Bosa, Darrick Forrest, and Laviska Shenault are my three favorite signings because of the contract and the fit/role I envision with the team. In theory, Joshua Palmer sounds like a good signing, but I don’t know if he can be a consistent starting outside threat for a team after being a WR3 for most of his career. I am optimistic about what Michael Hoecht will bring to the defense with his versatility. However, being out for the first six games made me want to focus on the three signings that I believe will have an impact right away or the potential for a more significant role in the future.
Bosa was a player I originally had as a high-risk signing when I was previewing the defensive line free agents because he was about to turn 30 and has an injury history. The Bills keeping his contract to 1-year deal at a lower cap hit made this a great signing because it incentivizes Bosa to play at a high level in hopes of cashing in as a free agent next offseason. This also lowers the Bills’ risk since they don’t have to worry about future years on a deal if Bosa can’t stay healthy. Having a playmaker of his caliber when healthy on the opposite end of Greg Rousseau is an upgrade from the last three seasons.
Forrest is an insurance policy at the safety position that reminds me a lot of when the Bills signed Taylor Rapp during the 2023 free agency period. I expect he will push Rapp and Cole Bishop, but the expectation is for him to be a backup. His ceiling at safety is higher than you can expect from Damar Hamlin or Cam Lewis. Forrest may not be a starter this season, but I won’t be surprised if he does enough to warrant a second contract with the team if he gets some playing time this year.
The signing of Shenault is significant because of the change in the kick-off rule for the upcoming 2025 season. With the move of a touchback to the 35-yard line, there will be more opportunities for returns this season, and Shenault returned 16 kicks last season, averaging 28.7 yards a return with one touchdown. He can also be your WR6 and have some packages designed around his ability as a gadget-style player in the backfield. This is a solid, low-risk signing.
Big Baller Beane
Heading into the offseason I was hopeful that the Bills would be able to extend at least two players on rookie deals and figure out Josh Allen’s contract without crippling the team moving forward. Brandon Beane exceeded my expectations. Extending four players a year before their contracts expired was the best case scenario this offseason. Adding years and guaranteed money to Allen’s contract while keeping his cap hit manageable at about 20% of the current team salary cap, which puts him 13th among NFL quarterbacks.
Just as important as the deals Beane made are the deals he hasn’t made. I would have loved to see Mack Hollins finish his career in Buffalo, but not at what New England paid him. I am happy for Hollins but I'm happier that Beane didn’t match the offer.
James Cook made his contract demands public this offseason, and he is the only player without a new contract from the players I viewed as priorities this offseason. Unless he changes his stance, I don’t see him playing in Buffalo past this season, and I won’t be surprised if they move him before the season. Give credit to Brandon Beane and the front office for allowing this to run its course and getting the deals done with the players they did.
Departures and Remaining Free Agents
2024 Roster Player Departures
Roster Decisions
The Bills' releases of Sam Martin and Von Miller were easy choices, as they freed up $10.4 million in cap space this season and were positions that will be improved at a lesser cost in 2025. Miller will carry a dead cap hit of $15.4 million this season, but then it's gone. Miller made $47.3 million over his three seasons in Buffalo, and the team wipes the slate clean after this season. I am glad they did the outright release now versus designating it a post-June 1st release and carrying more of the dead money into next season, where their salary cap situation is much cleaner. Sam Martin will bring a small dead cap of $400k. Buffalo will have around $29 million in dead cap money this season, with Rasul Douglas and Tre'Davious White joining Miller as 80% of that figure. A significant improvement from where the team was last off-season when they had $75 million in dead cap.
The other move that needed to happen was the trade of Kaiir Elam. Brandon Beane did a good job of finding a trade partner and recouping a fifth-round pick for a player who needed a change of scenery. The other positive to this was that Elam had a low chance of making the roster this coming season, and a trade was the only way to see salary cap savings. I have been optimistic about Elam since he was drafted, so I won’t be surprised if he turns into a starting cornerback on another team. He is a talented player but could never put it all together as a Bill. Hopefully, he figures it out in Dallas.
I am also happy with the players that Buffalo chose not to retain. Rasul Douglas showed that his skills had diminished to a point where an upgrade was necessary. Amari Cooper provided a solid boost at the time of the trade but quickly disappeared, and at this point, he would just be blocking the opportunities for other receivers. The defensive tackles were underwhelming, and a jolt of youth from the upcoming draft is needed to get some long-term solutions to the revolving door behind Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones over the last two seasons. I won’t be surprised if any of the remaining unsigned players, Eli Ankou, Jordan Phillips, and Dawuane Smoot, are brought back after the draft. They all have system knowledge and can be retained at a lower cost. They could be helpful with the early season suspensions to a couple of defensive linemen.
Pre-Draft Grade
If we’re doing grades on the offseason, I would give Buffalo a B overall. The contract extensions were at numbers below market value before playing out the final season of the existing deals, which I look at as a positive for the team and players. The two suspensions for Hoecht and Ogunjobi to start their Bills’ careers is a bad look. If it were just Hoecht, who was upfront with the team before signing, that would be one thing and not much of a factor, in my opinion. Ogunjobi’s makes the situation embarrassing. I won’t be surprised if there is a review of how drug testing is handled in the offseason to prevent another situation like this.
I also feel like the Bills failed to address the CB2 position and have positioned themselves to have to take one in the first round. My preference would have been to add a veteran to compete for that spot. I think they still have flexibility in the upcoming draft, but there is more pressure now to get a corner ready to play year one.
NFL Draft Outlook
Buffalo has positioned itself after free agency to make a move for a CB2 in the draft after trading away Kaiir Elam and bringing back veteran Dane Jackson. After locking up Christian Benford, they must secure a running mate opposite him. If Jahdee Brown out of Texas or Will Johnson from Michigan makes it past pick 14, keep an eye on Buffalo moving up with Atlanta or Arizona to get their guy. Atlanta has five picks, two in the top 100, and has multiple holes to fill. Arizona has six picks in the draft but also has numerous holes to fill and could use an extra day 2 pick and later picks to help fill in their roster. Buffalo has picks 30, 56, and 62 at their disposal, along with seven picks in rounds four through six. Below are two scenarios I created using the Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model.
Draft Day Trade Scenarios
Buffalo Bills potential trade scenarios
I’m not suggesting that Buffalo will make either of these trades, but this is the most significant jump up the board I can envision them doing from a compensation standpoint. I wanted to put the scenarios out there to show the cost of such a move. I will develop more scenarios that I believe are a bit more realistic as the draft approaches. Go Bills!
