15 Million Dollar Man?
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook made some headlines this week by pinning a comment on his Instagram livestream, saying, “15 mill year.” Subsequently, Cook has unfollowed the team on social media. This new move used by athletes in recent years is particularly common during contract negotiations and when the player is unhappy with how things are going. This has sparked the discussion on what the Bills should be paying Cook after the best season of his career before he enters the final year of his rookie contract. I will review the different scenarios I can see happening and why they would work for the team.
Pay Him Now, But…
James Cook has improved every season since joining the Bills as a 2nd round pick from the 2022 NFL Draft. He appeared in 16 games during his rookie season as a backup to lead running back Devin Singletary. The last two seasons, he’s been the primary back with consecutive 1,000 yard rushing and Pro Bowl campaigns. He has missed two games out of a possible 51 regular season games and has played in all 7 of the Bills’ postseason games since entering the league. I believe Buffalo wants Cook on the team into the future, but at $15 million a year, there will need to be changes in how he is used. Cook has averaged 210 touches, with 281 being his career high in 2023. You can’t make him the second highest-paid running back in terms of AAV at that volume.
Alvin Kamara is the comparison I will use to show how I believe the Bills should handle Cook’s contract situation if $15 million is the magic number. Kamara has averaged 265 touches per season. Kamara has never eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and has more production in the passing game, but he has similar attributes and build to Cook. James Cook must touch the ball four to five more times a game and be in the 275-300 range on the season if he expects to be paid $15 million a year.
If I’m Brandon Beane, I’m not paying James Cook $15 million a year. A 3-year/$37.5 million deal or a 4-year/$48 million deal is the range they should be negotiating in.
Play It Out
Buffalo doesn’t have to sign Cook to an extension since he is under contract. I mentioned this last offseason when discussing players eligible for new contracts. His cap hit is low, and the franchise tag for a running back in the 2024 season was just under $12 million, so it’s an option the team could choose to use next offseason. It appears that it could get messy if this is the route the team decides based on his recent comments and the public statements that his brother Dalvin Cook has made following this year’s playoff run. My guess is this is the least likely option of the three, and Buffalo will have a resolution before the draft.
Sell High
Trading James Cook now to a team that wants to pay him is the best option for the Bills. I didn’t feel this way a month ago, but if $15 million is the expectation, Buffalo cannot tie up that amount of money at the running back position. Cook played 44% of the snaps on offense in 2024 and had 56% of the rushing attempts amongst Bills’ running backs. For comparison sake, Saquon Barkley played 69% of the snaps on offense in 2024 and had 76% of the rushing attempts amongst Eagles’ running backs. Jonathan Taylor was at 65% of the snaps while missing three games and 77% of the rushing attempts. I use these two players as examples here because they are the second and third-highest paid running backs in terms of AAV currently under contract behind Christian McCaffrey. $15 million a year would put Cook at 2nd by himself.
Buffalo has Ray Davis and Frank Gore Jr., under contract and will likely bring Ty Johnson back. They can use the draft or free agency to replace Cook. If they aren't moving him for a player, Cook could probably get a low 3rd or high 4th round pick back and maybe a swap of late-rounders. He would only account for a $355k dead cap hit and would save the team $5.265 million. I am not saying this option is all positive. Cook is a very talented player, and if he feels that he deserves $15 million a year and a team wants to pay him that, then let him get it. The loss in production will hurt, but he is not a player who should be viewed as off-limits in terms of a trade piece. No matter what decision is made, it appears the clock is ticking on a resolution.
James Cook Instagram Story 2/14/25
