Week 10: Bills at Colts Preview
The 7-2 Bills travel west to Indianapolis to face the 4-5 Colts. Buffalo will be looking to extend its winning streak to five as Joe Flacco will try to end Indy’s losing streak and close the gap between them and the Houston Texans in the AFC South. Both teams are in different spots at this point in the season than some expected. The Colts had high hopes of competing for the AFC South crown, with second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson leading the way. Injuries and inconsistent play led to Richardson being benched after their week 8 loss to the Texans. Many expected the Bills to take a step back this year with the departures of some key contributors over the past few years who were entering the end of their careers. The Bills have responded with their best start to a season since 2020 and a chance to go 8-2 for the first time since the 1993 season.
Both teams will be missing key wide receivers on Sunday. Keon Coleman and Michael Pittman Jr were both ruled out on Friday. Below are the remaining injury designations for both teams.
Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen’s regular season record in games played in a dome is 9-3 with 31 total touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He has had some big games, and some stinkers, like earlier this year vs Houston. Playing in a dome doesn’t have much of an impact to me as the injuries to receivers Buffalo currently has. Coleman being ruled out, along with Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel not being 100% shifts players into roles that they’re not accustomed to. Allen will need to continue what he’s been doing all season and protecting the ball and taking what the Colts defense gives him. I expect that this will be a big game for the RBs and TEs in the passing game, and Allen will utilize his legs more than we have seen so far this season.
Dalton Kincaid - Kincaid has been pretty quiet for what everyone expected to be a breakout season as Allen’s assumed top target in the passing game. He leads the teams in targets, averaging 6/game, yet is averaging 3.5/receptions per game with his season high being six. He has eclipsed 50 yards in two games on the year and has been held under 35 yards in five of the Bills nine games. This must be the game he steps up. Tight ends vs the Colts defense are averaging 85 yards/game the last three games with two touchdowns. Kincaid needs to have his best game of the season on Sunday.
Ed Oliver - another player who I expected to play a prominent role for the Bills this year that has been underperforming. Oliver will be facing two rookies on the interior line filling in for C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries who are both on IR. This is a game that he needs to flash in and disrupt the running game. The Bills defensive approach has been to concede rushing yards by having more negative plays than splash plays. Indianapolis is not the team to take this approach with. Oliver needs to lead the attack.
3 Colts Players to Watch
DeForest Buckner - Buckner has been playing very good football in the two games since returning from his IR stint earlier this season with two sacks and 5 QB hits. The offensive line will need to communicate well in what will be a loud environment that the Colts defense will use to their advantage. In the three games that Buckner has a sack this year, either Grover Stewart or Dayo Odeyingbo have recorded one as well. The key to stopping the Colts pass rush is slowing down Buckner.
Josh Downs - Downs’ sophomore season is off to a good start but he’s been at his best with Joe Flacco under center. 70% of his targets this season have been in games Flacco has played in, finishing each game as the leading targeted receiver. Downs has 30 receptions for 277 yards with two touchdowns in Flacco’s four appearances vs 8 receptions for 134 yards with one touchdown in Richardson’s six appearances. Downs will need to be a focal point for the secondary.
Jonathan Taylor - Taylor is the best offensive weapon that the Colts have. He has played Buffalo twice, once regular season and once in the playoffs, and scorched them for 288 yards from scrimmage, averaging 5 ypc, and six total touchdowns. Five of those touchdowns came in the infamous 2021 matchup that the Colts won 41-15. He has to be the primary focus of the Bills’ defense. Stopping the run, and forcing Flacco to pass is the best way to secure a victory on Sunday.
Matchup of the Game
Bills Front Seven vs Colts Rushing Attack: The The Bills run defense needs to step up and stop the Colts running game. If the Colts are able to control the clock, and Johnathan Taylor is able to get into a rhythm, it will be a long day for the Bills defense. Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams will need to play a lot better than they did against Miami last week and DaQuan Jones must plug the middle and take advantage of the inexperience at center and right guard. Stop the run, win the game.
Prediction: Bills 27 Colts 16
The Bills are playing their best football right now because of their balanced offense. The running game has looked a lot better of late so I was curious to see if anything in the stats stood out. In weeks 1-5 the Bills averaged 118 rushing yards/game and in weeks 6-9 they are averaging 120 rushing yards/game. Minimal difference, but the yards per carry has improved from 4.2 to 4.5, and the passing offense has gone from 190 yards/game during the first five weeks to 264 yards/game over the last four weeks. Joe Brady is mixing up the plays, using similar concepts that can be a run or pass play, and making it harder on defenses to identify what they’re doing. He has made it easier for the offense and I expect this to continue on Sunday. Go Bills!
