Week 15: Bills at Lions Preview
The Bills head to Detroit for a highly anticipated matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL. Buffalo is looking to rebound from their worst defensive performance since the 2021 season after their 44-42 loss to the Rams in Week 14. The Lions are on an 11-game winning streak and have overcome a rash of injuries while maintaining a one-game lead in the competitive NFC North.
This game has the makings for a shootout between the top two scoring offenses entering Week 15. Buffalo needs to devise a plan to slow down the Lions’ 4th ranked rushing and passing offense in the NFL. Offensively, I anticipate Buffalo will air it out again with some key pass-catching weapons returning from injuries in Keon Coleman and presumably Dalton Kincaid. The Bills will need to slow down the Lions’ rushing attack if they want to have a chance at beating the NFC leaders and erase the doubt from last week’s loss. Both teams have some key players returning from injuries. Check out their Friday injury reports along with my players to watch, the matchup of the game, and my final score prediction below.
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen eclipsed 300 yards for the second time last week out of necessity more than gameplan entering the matchup with the Rams. I believe that Joe Brady would prefer to get the ground game going, but the Lions are only giving up 93.9 yards on the ground per game, which is 5th in the NFL. I feel Buffalo will struggle on the ground again and need to lean on Allen and the passing attack. That, along with what appears to be a full arsenal of pass catchers with Coleman being back and potentially Kincaid, has me thinking a 400+ passing-yard game could be in store for the first time since the 2022 season. If the run game stumbles early, I anticipate Josh Allen will capitalize with his arm and legs against a team that mostly plays man coverage and likes to blitz. All of these factors have the makings of another big game for the MVP favorite.
Keon Coleman/Khalil Shakir - putting two receivers here because these will be the primary receivers playing in the slot on Sunday. Coleman hasn’t played in over a month, so he should be fresh. Shakir is coming off his best performance of the season. The biggest weakness of the Lions’ defense is defending the slot receiver position. On the year, 64% of the receiving yards they’ve given up are to the slot. They have given up the 7th most yards and 2nd most touchdowns, with 17, to the opposing team’s slot receivers. This is the area that Josh Allen and Joe Brady need to attack if they want to put up points against the Lions. Detroit’s secondary has talented players, with 13 interceptions between their safety tandem and outside corner Carlton Davis. Attack their weakness with your strength. Feed Coleman and Shakir.
Taron Johnson - Johnson had his worst season performance against the Rams last week. He was targeted 11 times and gave up 8 receptions with 2 missed tackles. These were season highs to along with the 77 yards against, and he won’t be catching a break this week. Johnson will be going head-to-head with Lions’ star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown is the best slot receiver in the NFL and is in the midst of another All-Pro caliber season. The success of the Lions passing attack will hinge on this matchup. Can Taron Johnson limit St. Brown enough in the passing game to slow down the Detroit offense?
3 Lions Players to Watch
Jared Goff - Goff is having an MVP-caliber season of his own for Detroit. He’s completing over 72% of his passes at 8.6 yards per attempt, both second in the NFL. He leads the NFL with 164 play-action dropbacks for 1,580 passing yards, along with 12 passing touchdowns (second-most). His ability to spread the ball around in the short and intermediate areas of the field has led to the Lions converting on almost 46% of their third downs, 4th in the NFL. We saw this exposed in the Bills’ loss last week. Goff and the offense can be slowed down. Buffalo has to muck it up, make Goff uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, and create long down and distance situations. Doing this early in drives should help move the Lions away from running the ball. In Detroit’s 12 wins, Goff has averaged 27 pass attempts. In their week 2 loss to Tampa Bay, he attempted 55 passes.
Kerby Joseph - Joseph is tied for the league lead with 7 interceptions on the season, along with 10 passes defended, and is third on the team with 60 tackles. He is a ball hawk and makes up one of the best, if not the best, safety duos in the NFL with Brian Branch (4 INTs). Josh Allen must be alert to where they’re lining up to avoid being bated into a costly interception.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - St. Brown has the advantage in this matchup. Given the recent play of Taron Johnson, that advantage may be more significant than I initially expected. The Bills' secondary needs a game plan for his ability to get open across the middle and turn it upfield. Will they need to give him help with a safety, or try to hit him at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the timing of his routes? My guess is that all options will be on the table to try to prevent a second consecutive week of being torched in the passing game out of the slot. St. Brown has been held scoreless over the last three games after his 8-game touchdown reception streak ended. Will the Bills be able to extend that to 4 games?
Matchup of the Game
Stopping Sonic and Knuckles. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the most lethal running back combo in the NFL. Both are players to watch but are also the game's key matchup for the Buffalo defense. If the Bills can’t slow down the Lions’ running game, they will not win on Sunday. The interior defenders of the Bills must step up and have their best game of the season if they are to stand a chance at slowing this duo down. Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, DeWayne Carter, and Quinton Jefferson will all have to do their part to create pressure and clog the running lanes. Will we see the Bills call up Eli Ankou or activate Dawuane Smoot to the 53-man roster for a spark to what has been a lackluster group? Something needs to change if they are to stand a chance. The Lions’ success on the ground opens up their league-leading play-action passing game, which they utilize on 39% of passing plays. Gibbs and Montgomery are also factors in the passing game, particularly screenplays, where the Lions lead the league at nearly 10% of passing snaps. Expecting the Bills to stop the run or make Gibbs and Montgomery non-factors isn’t realistic. They must disrupt them and create negative plays that prevent Detroit from sticking to their gamescript.
Prediction: Lions 31 Bills 30
Josh Allen will have a big game, adding to his MVP resume, but it won’t be enough. Too many of Detroit’s strengths are currently Buffalo’s weaknesses. Therefore, I believe the Lions will win a close game on Sunday. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong, Go Bills!
