Week 16: Bills vs Patriots Preview
The Buffalo Bills return home after their victory over the Detroit Lions to face the 3-11 New England Patriots. This is the first of two matchups over the final three weeks of the season for the AFC East rivals. With the two teams heading in different directions, Buffalo needs to keep its focus and continue its solid play for the remainder of the season. New England wants something positive to end a disappointing season under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo.
New England is in a full rebuild with a new coach, new coordinators, and a rookie quarterback struggling on offense and defense, hoping to avoid a fifth straight loss. Buffalo has been rolling on offense with eight consecutive games at 30+ points but has given up 40+ points on defense for the first time under Sean McDermott. The Bills need to come out with the same energy on offense that we have been seeing and correct the defensive issues against a struggling offense.
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen is on a heater right now, and I don’t expect it to stop Sunday. His stats at the end of the game will be determined by how close New England can keep the score. Allen needs three touchdowns to eclipse 40 total touchdowns for a fifth consecutive season and can also become the fifth player all-time to have four touchdowns in four straight games if he does so Sunday. He and the Bills still have a lot to play for.
James Cook - Cook is coming off his third 100-yard rushing game of the season to face a New England defense that has had four backs eclipse the century mark against them this year. I don’t believe Cook will get another 100-yard game, but I expect him to play a key role early on in establishing the run game, and I won't be surprised if he ends up with another two-touchdown performance.
Ed Oliver - Oliver had his best game of the season vs the Lions and the most pressures by a defensive tackle this season with 10. He played like a man possessed and now faces a team with a struggling offensive line. Their center is ranked last out of all the centers in the NFL, and their guards are ranked 37th and 74th out of 75 eligible guards per PFF. Oliver should be able to have his way in the middle and open things up for Von Miller and Greg Rousseau on the edges.
3 Patriots Players to Watch
Christian Gonzalez - Gonzalez is the best defender on the Patriots and the ninth ranked corner in coverage per PFF. On the year, quarterbacks are completing 55% of their passes on him for a 70.4% passer rating. I won’t be surprised if Joe Brady and Josh Allen let him do his thing and attack the other corners in the Patriots’ secondary.
Drake Maye - Maye is one of the lone bright spots to start the post-Bill Belichick era in New England. The third overall pick in this year’s draft is playing well on a roster devoid of talent at the skill positions and protecting him. Buffalo will need to keep their eyes on him because he has the athleticism to burn the defense with his legs if he chooses to. Over his last four games, Maye has averaged 236 passing yards and 31 rushing yards while completing 74.3 of his passes with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas are his favorite targets. The duo has 38% of the receiving targets on the season.
Rhamondre Stevenson - The Patriots are 3-2 when Stevenson has had at least 20 carries this season. The problem has been keeping the games close enough, so they don’t have to abandon the run. Buffalo’s run defense has been a weakness at times this season, so stopping the run and forcing the Patriots to pass the ball will be key for the Bills’ defense.
Matchup of the Game
The Bills pass rush vs New England’s offensive line. The Patriots have given up 45 sacks this season, and how they hold up against the Bills’ front seven will determine how this game goes for them. Sean McDermott has been successful throughout his career at confusing rookie quarterbacks, so if the Patriots want to be competitive, they must protect Drake Maye and open running lanes for the backs. If Buffalo can create negative plays early on, it will be a long day for the New England offense.
Prediction: Bills 42 Patriots 13
I am not worried about Buffalo overlooking New England or playing down to their competition after facing playoff-caliber teams recently. This isn’t a slight towards the Patriots. Josh Allen and the Bills are playing at a different level of late, and returning home for a late-season home game against a divisional opponent will keep the energy high. Go Bills!
