Week 18: Bills at Patriots Preview
The 13-3 Buffalo Bills head to Foxboro for their last game of the regular season against the 3-13 New England Patriots. The Bills narrowly defeated New England two weeks ago, 24-21, but this matchup will look slightly different. The Bills are planning to rest starters, with Josh Allen starting to continue his NFL-leading consecutive starts streak before handing the reigns over to Mitch Trubisky. Drake Maye will start for the Patriots, but it's uncertain if he will play the whole game or hand it over to Jacoby Brissett or fellow rookie Joe Milton. Expect to see a lot of backups on both sides of the ball from both teams.
Aside from Allen’s consecutive start streak, a few Bills players have personal incentives and goals on the line listed below.
James Cook needs 19 rushing yards to eclipse 1000 for the second consecutive year.
Von Miller receives a $1.5 million bonus if he records at least one sack.
Taron Johnson needs at least one interception for a $250k bonus
DaQuan Jones needs a half sack for a $250k bonus
Dawson Knox has eight or more receptions and 89+ receiving yards, and he will receive a $200k bonus.
Taylor Rapp needs an interception to secure a $150k bonus.
Sam Martin needs to land one punt inside the 20 for another $100k in incentives
Mack Hollins needs 2+ receptions for $50k and 72+ receiving yards for $75k
Unlikely Incentive Bonuses
A.J. Epenesa needs at least two sacks for a $1 million bonus.
Dawuane Smoot needs 1.5+ sacks to receive a $250k bonus.
If Trubisky throws four touchdown passes he will make $200k in incentives
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Joe Andreessen - With Terrel Bernard already ruled out and starters not expected to play long, Andreessen should see a lot of snaps and potentially start in Bernard’s absence. I am excited to see him play after recording a team-high eight tackles last week vs the Jets.
Kaiir Elam - Elam had a challenging game in the first matchup with New England. Drake Maye had a 129.9 passer rating when targeting him for 76 yards and a touchdown while completing nearly 70% of his passes. This is a good opportunity for Elam to start and get meaningful playing time before heading into the playoffs.
Reggie Gilliam/Frank Gore Jr./KJ Hamler - These are the only position players who have not caught a touchdown pass this season that are on the active roster or eligible to be called up from the practice squad for Sunday’s game. Of course there could be an eligible lineman or a lateral to a backup QB. The Bills have tied the record of 13 players to have a receiving touchdown in a season for the second time (2020). These three players are their best options to break the record.
3 Patriots Players to Watch
Kayshon Boutte - Boutte had the best game of his career against the Bills in their first meeting. He set career highs in targets, catches, and yards while hauling in a touchdown pass over Elam.
Austin Hooper - Hooper needs four receptions to hit a $125k incentive. He had four against Buffalo in their Week 16 matchup, so it’s a pretty obtainable goal. If he gets on a roll early, I expect the New England quarterbacks to continue targeting him, as nine catches would mean $250k.
Anfernee Jennings - Jennings needs 1.5 sacks for a $500k payday. The Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but they will likely be playing rookies and reserves for most of the game. Jennings hasn’t had a sack since their week 10 victory over the Bears, so it's not a slam dunk but he is a player I would keep an eye on Sunday.
Matchup of the Game
Staying out of the blue tent. The only matchup I care about on Sunday is Buffalo staying healthy and off the injury report. The Bills entering the postseason the healthiest they’ve been in the past four years will be the key to a potential Super Bowl run.
Prediction: Bills 30 Patriots 24
Buffalo’s roster is deeper and filled with more talent than New England’s. New England can move the ball with Maye and their starters. Once the backups come in, their offense will struggle against the Bills defense. Joe Brady will have a good game plan for Trubisky and Mike White to accompany their run game, allowing the Bills to come out with the win. Go Bills!
