Week 8: Bills at Seahawks Preview
The 5-2 Bills travel to the Pacific Northwest for a match-up between division leaders with the 4-3 Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are fresh off their impressive victory over the Atlanta Falcons, with the Bills coming in on a two-game winning streak after their week 7 victory over the Tennessee Titans. Both teams will be looking to extend their division leads, but injuries to some key players may impact the outcome.
Star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf has been nursing a sprained MCL that he suffered late in the team’s victory against the Falcons that coach Mike Macdonald said will be reevaluated on Friday to determine his availability for Sunday’s matchup. The Seahawks activated RT George Fant from injured reserve on Wednesday, making it possible that he could suit up for his first action since week 1. Below is the full injury report for the Seahawks after Thursday’s practice.
The Bills again have key players with injury designations after the Titans game that will affect their availability on Sunday. Coach McDermott ruled Terrel Bernard, DeWayne Carter, and Curtis Samuel out Friday morning. Unfortunately, Carter’s injury will require surgery that could land the promising rookie on IR. The loss of Bernard makes Dorian Williams’ availability vital. Below is the full injury report for the Bills after Friday’s practice.
*Carter was placed on IR Friday afternoon and will miss 4 games*
3 Bills Players to Watch
Bills Running Backs - James Cook and Ray Davis are developing into a running back duo that can attack defenses differently as perfect compliments to one another. The Seahawks rank 29th in rush yards allowed, with rushers averaging 5 yards per carry (28th ahead of Buffalo at 29th). They’ve only allowed two 100-yard rushers on the season but have struggled to stop the run overall. This needs to be where the Bills attack offensively to slow down the pass rush of the Seahawks and open up the passing game for the Bills. I expect a heavy dose of Cook and Davis throughout the game and won’t be surprised if they combine for 25+ touches for the first time since week one.
Ed Oliver - Oliver had his best game since week 2 against the Titans last week. The hamstring injury that slowed him down and caused him to miss their game against the Jets is healed, and we need the 2023 Oliver to return to form this week. The Bills’ pass rush feeds off the pressure Oliver generates inside, and the rush defense thrives when he gets into the backfield early to disrupt run plays. The defense must see both if they want to succeed this weekend. Overall, the Seahawks have one of the inferior offensive lines in the NFL, but the guards and RT positions are the areas where they’re weakest.
Josh Allen - This may seem pretty obvious, but Allen will need to continue running the offense the way he did in the second half against the Titans if the Bills are going to win this game. Seattle doesn’t consistently create turnovers, having four games with zero, but they are coming off a week seven victory, where they forced three in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Allen has done an excellent job protecting the ball this season but has struggled against simulated pressure. Expect the Seahawk defense to create confusion with these looks on top of their usual pass rush, ranking 7th in the NFL with 20 sacks on the season. I don’t expect Allen to have another 300-yard performance, but if he plays under control and takes the middle and underneath routes that have been open, the Bills can attack the Seahawks’ defense.
3 Seahawks Players to Watch
Kenneth Walker - Walker is a home run threat every time he touches the ball. The problem is that he hasn’t been getting the ball as much as expected in the Seahawks’ offense. In the five games he has been active this season, Walker only has one game where he exceeded 14 carries and two games with 20+ touches. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 7 yards per reception with seven total touchdowns. The Bills defense will need to slow Walker down and put the Seahawks in situations that force them to pass. Creating negative plays on first and second down to force third and long scenarios will be necessary for the Bills defense.
Boye Mafe - Mafe has developed into a solid pass rusher paired up with Derick Hall. Hall is the better coverage player of the duo, but Mafe makes plays in the run game. He is tied for the team lead with five TFLs to go with his four sacks during the season. The offensive line will need to be on their game with assignments and protection changes in what will surely be a loud, hostile environment at Lumen Field. Slowing down Mafe and Hall will need to be a priority for the Bills’ offense.
Geno Smith - Smith is the most underrated starting quarterback in the NFL. He currently leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,985, completing 68.5% of his passes. He may be missing his top target, but he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett, who make up 38% of his targets and are also having good seasons. Both receivers have 30+ catches and 300+ yards on the season and have picked up 30% of the team’s first downs. Smith will have weapons with or without Metcalf on the field. The key piece to disrupting Smith will be stopping the run game early so that the play-action game doesn’t get established. Smith is one of the best quarterbacks running play action from under center. The Bills need to be aware and stick to their assignments on defense.
Matchup of the Game
The Trenches: The Bills’ offensive line will face a challenge on Sunday. The stadium atmosphere and the tenacity of the Seahawks’ defense will be on par with the game in Baltimore, in which they struggled. If they cannot communicate well, it will be a long night for the offense. Seattle does an excellent job at creating pressure and is 9th in the league at disruption rate. This newer metric evaluates the number of designed pass plays (excluding spikes) that do not result in a targeted pass. It helps show how effective a pass rush is without focusing on the team's total sacks; FYI, the Bills finished first in this metric last season.
Conversely, the Bills’ defensive line must pressure Geno Smith and slow the run game down. Smith has been sacked 20 times this season, tied for third-most in the league, and the Seahawks have averaged 25 carries a game in their victories and 16 in their losses. The Bills must take advantage of a weaker offensive line and stop the run early to disrupt the Seahawks’ offense and force them into passing the ball more than they would like.
Prediction: Bills 33 Seahawks 31
This game feels like it has the possibility of turning into a shootout with some of the players missing on the Bills defense. Don’t be surprised if Allen throws his first interception on the season in this one against a very good Seattle secondary. I believe the Bills will come out on top in the end with late game score to pull off the victory.
