Week 9: Bills vs Dolphins Preview
The 6-2 Bills welcome their division rival, the 2-5 Miami Dolphins, to Buffalo for their second season meeting on Sunday. The Bills were victorious in their first meeting, the week 2 Thursday Night game in Miami, 31-10. Both teams have had different paths to this matchup, with the Bills coming in on a three-game winning streak after the 31-10 victory in Seattle. Miami has lost four of their five games since the Bills loss. Tua Tagovailoa will be making his second start for the Dolphins since the concussion he suffered in week 2, and the Bills will welcome back Von Miller, who will be returning from his four-game suspension. Both teams have some key players with injury designations that are questionable to play on Sunday.
Friday’s Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen is off the best start of his career and averaging 273 ypg along with two TDs during the team’s current win streak. In his 13 matchups against Miami in his career, he is averaging around 270 ypg and has a 2.6 TDs/game. You can see why I expect another big performance from him this time. Allen is 11-2, 6-0 at home, in his career vs the Dolphins.
Keon Coleman - Coleman was held without a catch in the first matchup between the two, his only game on the season without one. This will not be the case on Sunday, as we have seen Coleman develop into a trusted target in the Bills offense over the last two weeks with nine catches for 195 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins’ secondary looks like they will be without safety Jevon Holland with a knee injury, on top of cornerback Kader Kohou being ruled out already. I expect Coleman will take advantage and continue his hot streak.
James Cook - Cook had three touchdowns in the first half of the week two matchup with the Dolphins, including a career-long 49-yarder on the first play after a Miami turnover on downs. The Dolphins will be missing Zach Sieler on the defensive line, which should help open up running lanes for the speedy running back. He has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games and will make it four on Sunday.
3 Dolphins Players to Watch
Tua Tagovailoa - Tua was off to a bad start in the first matchup this season with three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and 145 passing yards before leaving the game with a concussion. In eight career games against the Bills, he has 1,599 yards, seven touchdowns, and ten interceptions with a 1-7 record (200 ypg and a .70:1 TD-to-interception ratio). He is 34-14 versus the rest of the NFL, averaging 245 ypg with a TD-to-interception ratio of 2.57:1. Sean McDermott and the Bills’ defense have had his number. He will need to have a big game if the Dolphins are going to pull off the upset in Western NY this weekend.
Jonnu Smith - Smith had six catches for 53 yards in the first matchup between the two teams. Over the last three weeks, he has 16 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown, so he has developed a role in the offense without a reliable WR3 option. This Bills defense has been vulnerable against tight ends and quick passes, as we saw against the Titans two weeks ago. I expect this will be a focal point for Miami early on to help open up their deep game with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
De'Von Achane - Achane had 165 yards from scrimmage against the Bills in week 2 and was the lone bright spot for the offense that night. In the two meetings with the Bills in 2023, Achane racked up 157 yards on the ground (8.7 YPC) and 3 TDs with another 24 yards on four catches. He has big games against the Bills. His speed and pass-catching ability must be a priority for the defense.
Matchup of the Game
Bills Pass Rush vs. Dolphins Offensive Line: I have a lot of confidence in the Bills’ ability to put up points against the depleted Dolphins’ defense. The area that needs to be won by the Bills will be their pass rush to disrupt the timing and quick passing game of the Dolphins. Tua averaged 2.3 seconds on time to throw, and 3.5 average completed air yards against the Cardinals, which were first and third for all quarterbacks in week 8 per NextGenStats. The Dolphins know they have a weak offensive line and that timing is essential in their offense. Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and Von Miller need to be disruptive, speed up the timing on Tua, and help the secondary out.
Prediction: Bills 38 Dolphins 17
The Bills are currently averaging 38.3 points per game over their three home games this season and have averaged 32.9 ppg vs. the Dolphins in the regular season since Josh Allen became the quarterback. Points will be scored, and the Bills' defense will continue its hot play and shut the Dolphins down in the second half.
