Divisional Round: Bills vs Ravens Preview
The Buffalo Bills welcome the Baltimore Ravens to Western New York this weekend in a highly anticipated Divisional Round matchup between the AFC’s two and three seeds. The Bills defeated the Broncos 31-7 in the Wild Card round while the Ravens knocked off their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-14. A lot has changed since their regular season meeting in Week Four, where the Ravens won handily, 35-10. Both teams have learned from that meeting, but I don’t think you can use it as a measuring stick for this Sunday’s game. Earlier this week, I gave my breakdown of Baltimore and their key players. This preview will focus on the three Bills players I believe are primed for a big game, three Ravens players who I think are the biggest threats to the Bills, the most important matchup of the game, and my final score prediction.
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen had a slow start last weekend on his way to a 300+ total yard game with two touchdowns while completing 77% of his passes. I expect that level of performance to continue. Allen’s play steps up in the playoffs, and his legs become a more significant weapon. The Ravens’ defense used a lot of man coverage in the first meeting that I don’t expect to happen this time.
Dalton Kincaid - I’ve been debating Kincaid and Curtis Samuel as a player who I think can have a big game against the Ravens. The matchup favors Kincaid. The Ravens’ defense gives up the ninth most yards to the TE position. His ability to stretch the field puts the Ravens in a difficult spot with how they choose to deploy Kyle Hamilton. Does he match up with Kincaid, or do they put a linebacker on him and take their chances?
Matt Milano - Milano and Terrel Bernard were absent from the Week 4 meeting with the Ravens. Having both healthy for this game is crucial to the defense's success in slowing down the Ravens’ offense. Milano is my player to watch because of his ability to play a QB spy and disrupt the running game in the backfield. He appears to be as close to his preinjury self right now and should be a difference maker.
3 Ravens Players to Watch
Justice Hill - Hill is an x-factor for the Ravens with his ability to leak out and be an outlet for the offense when plays break down. Buffalo is the worst defense in the NFL in giving up yards to running backs in the passing game at 750 and second worst in receptions and touchdowns with 92 and 6 on the season. Hill burned the Bills for 6 receptions and 78 yards with a touchdown in their first meeting. With the absence of Zay Flowers, I expect the passing game will utilize Hill more on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson - Jackson’s ability to throw or tuck and run has become even more lethal with the option style of offense the Ravens showed against the Steelers in their Wild Card round victory. Over Jackson’s last five games, he’s completed 68% of his passes, averaging 211 yards through the air with another 64 yards on the ground. He has 14 passing touchdowns and one rushing over that span. He is playing at a high level, and the Bills’ defense will need to stick to their gaps and assignments when rushing him. Jackson’s playstyle leads to the opportunity for big losses on sacks, but a missed tackle can lead to a big gain. Pass rushers completing the sack when getting through needs to be better than it was against the Broncos.
Brandon Stephens - Stephens is considered the weak link of the Ravens’ secondary. I expect Allen will be looking for who he’s lined up against, presnap, and Stephens will be a target in the passing game. Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating when targeting him and a touchdown pass last week. During the year, quarterbacks have a 112.3 passer rating while completing 70% of their passes when targeting him. He’s also been called for seven defensive penalties over the past six weeks. Will this trend continue, or will Stephens step up?
Matchup of the Game
Stopping Derrick Henry. Henry would be a player to watch, but he’s the key to the game for the Bills’ defense. In previous matchups, Sean McDermott has created strong game plans to slow Henry down. The Week 4 performance was an exception, not the norm. Henry has averaged 72 yards on the ground in the five matchups before this season, with his best performance being a 143-yard game in 2021. Buffalo knows how to disrupt him, and now they need to execute. The key will be getting enough penetration to prevent Henry from having a head of steam before meeting would-be tacklers. Penetrate and tackle low. The Ravens are 2-5 when Henry is held under 90 rushing yards. Buffalo needs to force Baltimore’s hand into being one-dimensional.
Prediction: Bills 27 Ravens 23
My confidence heading into this game really started to turn as the week progressed. Buffalo is healthier, the offense is more balanced, and the offensive line is playing much better than they were when these two teams faced each other at the beginning of the season. Slow Henry down, create long down and distances, and sustain long drives on offense that result in touchdowns, not field goals. Execute and advance. Go Bills!
