Divisional Round: Breaking Down the Baltimore Ravens
The Buffalo Bills, fresh off their 31-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card round, welcome the Baltimore Ravens, who defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14, to Highmark Stadium for a 6:30 PM showdown this Sunday on CBS. A lot has changed since the Ravens Week 4 dismantling of the Bills earlier this season. Now, I will break down Baltimore’s key players, the team’s strengths and weaknesses, and themes from the Ravens’ wins and losses this season.
Key Players
QB Lamar Jackson - 316/474, 66.7%, 4,172 Passing Yards, 41 TDs, 4 INTs, 23 Sacks, 119.6 Passer Rating
RB Derrick Henry - 325 Carries, 1,921 Rushing Yards, 5.9 YPC, 16 TDs, 3 Fumbles
WR Zay Flowers - 74 Receptions, 116 Targets, 1,059 Receiving Yards, 14.3 YPC, 4 TDs, 6 Drops
CB Marlon Humphrey - 67 Tackles, .5 Sack, 5 TFL, 15 PD, 6 INT, 2 FF, 1 TD
S Kyle Hamilton - 107 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 4 TFL, 9 PD, 1 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR
X-Factor
Strengths
Ground Attack - The Ravens led the NFL in rushing yards, yards per carry, runs of 20+ and 40+ yards, rushing first downs, and rushing first downs percentage. Running the ball is their best weapon, and when it’s successful, it opens up the entire field for the offense to operate at its best.
Pass Rush - The Ravens finished the regular season second in the NFL with 54 sacks and have two players with 10+ on the season and three with 6.5 or more.
WR Separation - The Ravens have two of the best receivers at creating separation in the NFL. Rashod Bateman leads the NFL at 77.27%, and Zay Flowers is fourth at 70.37%.
Tight Ends - Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Charlie Kolar make up 33% of the receptions and 44% of the receiving touchdowns in Baltimore’s offense. Their versatility allows them to remain on the field in passing and run situations, making it difficult for defenses.
Run Defense - The Ravens had the number one run defense in the NFL, giving up 80 yards a game on the ground. Five teams eclipsed 100 yards on the ground, with Saquon Barkley the lone back to eclipse the century mark.
Weaknesses
Penalties - The Ravens finished the season 30th in the NFL, averaging 7.8 penalties per game. This number jumps to 8.6 per game on the road. 40% of their penalties have been offensive holding, false start, or illegal formation calls. Defensively, they’re the 4th highest penalized team for defensive pass interference and defensive holding, with 15 DPIs and 9 holding penalties.
Pass Coverage - The Ravens’ defense in the regular season was 31st in the NFL, giving up 262.8 yards per game through the air. They were 30th in the NFL with 58 passing plays of 20+ yards.
Kicking Game - The Ravens’ kicking game and the once-reliable Justin Tucker have struggled this season. Tucker was successful on 73.3% of his field goal attempts, which is a career worst. All the misses came from 40+ yards out, where he was 11-19 (58%). Tucker was 81% from that distance heading into this season.
Special Teams - The Ravens rank near the bottom of the NFL as a unit (PFF -30th, Lineups.com 29th). Their field goal kicking, kickoff coverage, and punt return unit are all negative factors contributing to their poor ranking. They finished the season tied for the third most fumbles (3) on punts.
Wide Reciever Depth - The Ravens’ top two receivers, Bateman and Flowers, are among the best duos in the AFC. Once you get past them, the production drops considerably. The Ravens utilize their Tight Ends and Running Backs to make up for this, but it gets magnified when a receiver is out like Flowers currently is. Nelson Agholor and Tylan Wallace are WR3 and 4. They combine for 25 receptions on 41 targets for 424 yards and three touchdowns on the season.
How They Win
The Ravens are 12-0 when they score over 25 points and are at their best when they can run the ball on their terms. In the Ravens’ 12 wins, they averaged 203.25 yards on the ground, 53.25 more yards than they averaged in their five losses. Derrick Henry averages 135.1 yards on 21.3 carries in their wins compared to 70 yards on 14.8 carries per game in their losses. The running game fuels their offense.
Defensively, they suffocate the run. They held seven opponents to less than 60 yards on the ground and were 6-1 in those games. They held twelve opponents to 83 yards or less and were 9-3 in those games. They make teams one-dimensional, and it allows their pass rush to thrive. 24 of their 54 sacks (44%) on the season came in the six games that they held opponents under 60 rushing yards. 70% of their sacks came in the 12 games they gave up less than 83 rushing yards.
How To Beat Them
Force them to throw the ball. In the seven games that Lamar Jackson has thrown the ball 33 or more times, the Ravens are 2-5. Jackson has been sacked 11 times in the five losses, 48% of the sacks he’s taken on the entire season. These 7 games have also been when Henry has been held under 90 rushing yards. Stopping Henry and forcing Jackson to air it out is easier said than done, but it’s the best recipe for beating the Ravens.
The Ravens’ defense has struggled in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter in their losses. Do not abandon the run game and use it to wear down the defense. Keep it close heading into the fourth quarter, where they gave up 8.2 points per game, 27th in the NFL, on the season.
