2025 NFL Draft: Trade Scenarios
We are less than a week away from the NFL draft, and like most Bills fans, I am wondering what Brandon Beane has up his sleeve. Buffalo has ten draft picks, three in the top 75, but it lacks a third-rounder for the second year in a row entering the draft. In my Free Agency Review, I gave two trade scenarios with the Bills making a big jump to get one of the top cornerbacks in the first round. It would be out of the norm for Brandon Beane to make a move like that based on his track record, but I do expect he will be active all three days, making moves up and down the board.
Buffalo Bills 2025 Draft Picks Pre-Draft
Brandon Beane’s Draft-Day History
Brandon Beane has made 17 draft-day trades since the 2018 Draft. Seven times he traded up and ten times he traded back. Twice, he has acquired a future year draft pick in a draft-day trade, in 2023 and 2024. He made two trades in the 2018 and 2019 drafts. He did not make a trade in 2020 and made one in the 2021 draft. Since 2022, he has made four trades in each draft. He enters the 2025 draft with 10 draft picks. If he uses all of them, it would tie him for the most draft picks made, which he set after making 10 selections last year. Below, I will present three scenario types that I can see happening based on how the board falls and what the Bills will do with the draft capital they have. I used the Jimmy Johnson Valuation Model for the points in my trades.
Only One Player Left
All teams have a set number of first-round grades on players heading into the draft. I highly doubt that Buffalo has thirty, and they might not have twenty, with the lack of blue-chip prospects this year. There are two positions that I believe they will be targeting in the first round: cornerback and defensive tackle. In this scenario, only one player remains with a first-round grade on the Bills’ draft board as the draft moves into the mid-twenties. There are four players I would be happy to see them do this for. Cornerbacks Jahdae Barron and Trey Amos. Defensive Tackles Derrick Harmon and Kenneth Grant. I have seen Barron dropping into the mid twenties in a few mocks, which makes me believe he could be in play later in the first round than I originally anticipated. Amos is unlikely to last until the Bills' second-round selections, and he appears to be gaining momentum as the draft approaches. I envision Harmon and Grant as players who can step in behind DaQuan Jones if selected by the Bills.
First Round Draft Trade Scenarios
The logic behind trading with the Rams or Vikings is that they enter the draft with four picks total, tied for the lowest of all teams. They need to recoup some of the draft capital they have traded away over the past two seasons to help replenish their rosters. I also looked for NFC teams, assuming they would be more likely to make a deal with them than Houston and Baltimore.
No More First Round Grades
Similar to last year, I can see the Bills trading out of the first round if they do not have a player with a first-round grade remaining on their board. The advantage they have this year is the number of teams picking early in the second round that are in need of their quarterback of the future. They all have their first-round picks, but taking a quarterback in the top 10 after Cam Ward doesn’t seem very likely. Quarterbacks Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, and Tyler Shough could all be in play at the end of the first round. If Shedeur Sanders is somehow still available, the price could go up in favor of Buffalo.
NYG, Las Vegas, and New Orleans all have long term QB needs
The trade scenarios involving the Giants and the Saints give Buffalo the third round pick that they’re lacking and the opportunity to make four selections in the top 100. The Raiders trade would give the Bills more capital to move up the board and potentially into the third round if they package some of their existing picks with either the fourth or sixth rounder they acquire.
Top 100 Picks
Brandon Beane doesn’t have a third-round pick and has some lengthy stretches between picks. After pick 62 in the second round, the Bills have 47 selections until they pick again at the beginning of the fourth round. After their second fourth-round pick, 132, they have 37 selections before making four more selections over the next nine picks (169, 170, 173, 177). These are prime picks to package together and get back into the top 100 and acquire a third-round selection. Currently, nine teams have two selections in the third round. Three teams do not have a second-round pick, but have a third, making them candidates to trade up with Buffalo for one of their second-round picks.
Buffalo currently doesn’t hold a third round pick.
The L.A. Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Pittsburgh Steelers do not have a second-round pick in the 2025 draft. All three could be in play to trade up, but I used Pittsburgh for this scenario because they are the most quarterback-needy team. This is an overpay, but it’s not unprecedented. The Rams traded up in the second round last year and traded this year’s second-round pick, along with their 2024 second-round pick, to do so. I am not advocating for Buffalo to do this, but it would need to be an overpay from the team they're dealing with for me to feel good about trading out of one of their second-round spots.
Jacksonville and New Orleans are two of the nine teams with multiple third-round picks in this year’s draft. I didn’t want to use future picks in my scenarios coming from Buffalo, so that’s why it took four picks to get the value close to the same. The reason I am okay with Buffalo moving four picks to acquire one is that I don’t think they will be able to roster more than eight draft picks on their final 53-man roster. They have a talented roster, so I wouldn’t mind seeing them package picks and end the draft with seven selections, four of those inside the top 100. Quality over quantity should be their approach.
Ultimately, I am confident that Brandon Beane will be active next week and open for business once the draft begins. I will be surprised if the Bills make ten selections by Saturday night.
I will have more draft-related blogs next week, including my first and only mock draft for Buffalo draft picks. Go Bills!
