Week 11: Bills vs Chiefs Preview
Bills vs. Chiefs week is here. Like many others, I have had this game circled since the schedule was released earlier this year. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, and their matchups have proven to be must-see TV. It also helps that Kansas City is coming into the game at 9-0 vs our 8-2 (to many people’s surprise) Bills. If the Bills have any hope of obtaining the number one seed in the AFC come playoff time, this is a game they need to win.
Both teams ruled players out on Friday. The Chiefs will be without Charles Omenihu and Isiah Pacheco, who are returning from stints on the IR and were long shots to play this week. Veteran kicker Harrison Butker was placed on IR after injuring his knee during practice this week. Spencer Shrader was signed off the New York Jets practice squad to fill in.
The Bills will be without Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid on offense. Matt Milano’s practice window was opened this week after his IR stint, and he will also be out. Below are the Friday injury reports.
Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen has played very well against the Chiefs in his career. In the regular season, he is 3-1, averaging 250 yards/game with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in the four contests. He has averaged 41 yards/game on the ground with two touchdowns. There seems to be a calmness to his game that has developed when facing the Chiefs that wasn’t there in the meetings early in his career. On Sunday, I expect Allen to take what the Chiefs defense will give him and utilize the running backs and underneath routes to move the ball down the field. This will be a game where Allen uses his legs more than we have seen this season to pick up first downs and keep the defense honest. Ball security and taking what the defense gives you must be the plan.
Dawson Knox - In 3 regular season matchups against the Chiefs, Knox has averaged three receptions and 63 yards per game. These averages would be season highs on an underwhelming offensive season for the sixth-year tight end. The Chiefs are a team that struggles to defend the tight end position. This season, they have allowed 77.5 yards on 6.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, which equals 38% of the passing yards against them. It’s a weakness in a defense ranked 4th in yards per game and 5th in points per game that needs to be exploited if the Bills want to be successful Sunday afternoon. I expect Knox to be targeted early and often in the passing game.
Greg Rousseau - Rousseau has developed into one of the top pass rushers in the NFL. He just isn’t putting up the sack numbers you expect in that echelon of players. On the season, he has 41 quarterback pressures and an 18.5% pass rush win percentage, making him PFF’s sixth-ranked pass rusher. His ability to be a factor in the run game and generate QB pressure will be vital in slowing down the Chiefs’ offense, which may not be as high-flying as it has been in years past but is highly efficient. Rousseau will need to stick to his assignments to keep Mahomes contained in the pocket, as the Bills are not going to be blitzing often. Setting the edges and collapsing the pocket from both sides is the best way to disrupt Mahomes and the passing attack. I expect Rousseau to have a big game.
3 Chiefs Players to Watch
Chris Jones - Jones can disrupt a play or take over a game with his abilities on the interior of the defensive line. On the season, he has three sacks, but he also opens up opportunities for his teammates to be successful. His knack for impacting plays that don’t result in a sack or tackle are a big part of his game. Jones’ ability to move up and down the line will be something that all of the Bills’ offensive linemen need to be prepared for. Keeping Jones in check will need to be a priority for this unit.
Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes is having a down season by his standards but is still the best quarterback in the NFL. His ability to stay patient and keep the chains moving has the Chiefs’ offense 2nd in the NFL in average time of possession while being 11th in points per game. In Mahomes’ four regular-season meetings against Buffalo, he has averaged 276 yards/game with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. The Bills defense will need to be creative with their looks, disciplined with their assignments, and find ways to create pressure on Mahomes without blitzing. It is a tall task, but they have been successful against the three-time Super Bowl Champion before.
Xavier Worthy - I don’t think Worthy will have the most catches or be the most targeted player on Sunday. That will be Travis Kelce. But I guarantee that the Chiefs will dial up two or three plays to get Worthy the ball on a run play or deep shot at points in the game. Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson will need to be physical with the speedy receiver at the line of scrimmage.
Matchup of the Game
Converting on Third Down - The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL’s number one offense on third downs at 52%. Their ability to extend drives and shorten the game has made up for the lack of explosive plays to which we have become accustomed. Their offense is efficient, and the Bills allow opposing teams to convert on third down at a 40% rate. They need to be better than this against the Chiefs. The Bills’ defense will need to create third-and-long situations and force punts or field goals if they are going to win this game.
Prediction: Bills 23 Chiefs 21
The Bills will win on Sunday because they will play mistake-free football and win the turnover battle against the Chiefs. I am anticipating a close game, and whoever has the ball last will win. A Bills victory on Sunday will be a good send-off into the much-needed bye week. Get a win, get some rest, and get guys healthy. Go Bills!
