Wild Card Weekend: Bills vs Broncos Preview
The Buffalo Bills welcome the Denver Broncos to Western New York this weekend in a Wild Card matchup between the AFC’s two and seven seeds. The Bills secured their playoff spot over a month ago when they locked up the AFC East. The Broncos clinched theirs in Week 18 against the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups. Earlier this week, I gave my breakdown of Denver and their key players. This preview will focus on the three Bills players who I believe are primed for a big game, three Broncos players who I think are the biggest threats to the Bills, the most important matchup of the game, and my prediction.
Friday Injury Reports
3 Bills Players to Watch
Josh Allen - Allen is 4-1, averaging 290 passing yards and a 111.4 passer rating with 13 TDs to 2 INTs in his five career Wild Card Playoff games. I expect that type of production will continue against Denver. Allen needs to play patient and take what the defense is giving him. Quick passes across the middle, short passes to the running backs, and using his legs when things aren't there. Denver plays a lot of man-to-man defense, so there will be opportunities to run and linebackers in coverage against running backs that Allen needs to take advantage of.
James Cook - The Denver rush defense has improved since last season when Cook averaged 9.1 ypc, racking up 100+ rushing yards. He, along with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson will be critical in establishing the run early and being weapons in the passing game. I expect Cook to be at 125+ total yards and the group at 200+.
Ed Oliver - Oliver sounded like a player who was sick of hearing about past failures in his conversations this week with the media. That, along with Oliver’s uptick in play over his last 3 games, have me feeling confident about how he will perform on Sunday. The weakest part of the Broncos OL is their rookie center and at the left guard position. Oliver should be able to have success with this matchup.
3 Broncos Players to Watch
Jonathon Cooper - I am putting Cooper here over Nik Bonitto because he reminds me of Kyle Van Noy, and Van Noy wreaked havoc on the Bills’ offensive line in their matchup earlier this season. Cooper has 10.5 sacks, 20 QB Hits, and 11 TFL this season. He is a problem and makes up a dynamic pass-rush duo on the edges for the Broncos. Spencer Brown will have his hands full on Sunday.
Bo Nix - Nix’s play has improved over the second half of the season after a bumpy start to have his name in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bobby Babich and the Buffalo defense will need to confuse the first-year signal caller and prevent him and the offense from getting into a groove. I anticipate the Bills will utilize simulated pressures and disguised looks to make Nix uneasy. Blitzing hasn’t been the best answer at slowing him down, so I won’t be surprised if the Bills use a spy on longer down and distances to prevent Nix from scrambling for first downs.
Pat Surtain - Surtain is the best corner in the league and can play on an island. Ironically, this is an advantage to the Buffalo offense. The Bills’ ability to spread the ball around and not rely on one receiver allows them to neutralize the Broncos’ best defender. Surtain’s coverage numbers should look great on paper at the end of this game because I don’t expect the ball to be thrown his way often.
Matchup of the Game
Battle in the Trenches. Buffalo’s front seven will need to create pressure or make Bo Nix feel pressured to rattle the first-year QB. Denver’s offensive line is elite at pass protection and can be a good run-blocking unit. Getting the Broncos into long downs and distances to get them off-script is the key for the Bills defense to prevent them from establishing the run game and getting into their play-action offense.
This is the best pass rush the Buffalo offensive line will face this season. Allen will need to rely on the quick passing game to neutralize the pass rush and the linemen will need to create clear lanes for the running game and to take advantage of Allen’s scrambling ability. Alec Anderson and Reggie Gilliam will play crucial roles in slowing the rush and providing extra blockers in the running game.
