Wild Card Weekend: Breaking Down the Denver Broncos
The Buffalo Bills, winners of the AFC East and number two seed, welcome the Denver Broncos, who secured the seventh seed with their 38-0 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, to Highmark Stadium for a 1 PM showdown this Sunday on CBS. A lot has changed since my AFC West Preview earlier this year. Now, I will break down Denver’s key players, the team’s strengths and weaknesses, and themes from the Broncos ’ wins and losses this season.
Key Players
QB Bo Nix - 376/567, 66.3%, 3,775 Passing Yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 24 Sacks, 93.3 Passer Rating
RB Javonte Williams - 139 carries, 513 Rushing Yards, 3.7 YPC, 4 TDs, 2 Fumbles
WR Courtland Sutton - 81 Receptions, 135 Targets, 1,081 receiving yards, 13.3 ypc, 8 TDs, 9 Drops
CB Pat Surtain - 45 Tackles, 11 PD, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD
LB Nik Bonitto - 48 Tackles, 13.5 Sacks, 16 TFL, 4 PD, 1 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 TDs
X-Factor
Strengths
Offensive Line - 24 sacks (3rd best in NFL) given up on the year for 198 yards lost. Quinn Meinerz is one of the best guards in the NFL and is paired up with one of the top tackle duos in Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey. Their strengths are pass protection and the screen game. Roughly 20% of Nix’s throws are screen passes. When things break down, Nix leads the NFL in passing yards on the run with 908.
Finishing Halves - The Broncos average 8.9 points (3rd in NFL) in the 2nd quarter and 8.1 points in the 4th quarter (6th in NFL).
Front Seven - The Broncos lead the NFL with 63 sacks on the season. They know how to rush the passer and have six players with at least five sacks and two with double-digit sacks on the year. The pass rush is elite, but so is the rush defense. Denver is 3rd in the NFL, giving up 96.4 yards per game on the ground.
Red Zone Defense - The Broncos hold opponents to a 46.9% touchdown rate when they get to the Red Zone, 3rd in the NFL.
Second Half Defense - Denver is only allowing 7.6 points in the second half this season (2.9 in the 3rd, 4.7 in the 4th)
Weaknesses
Slow Starts - On the year, Denver averages 3.6 first-quarter points per game. They have been losing or tied after the first quarter in 11 of their 17 games. Their record is 5-6 in those games.
Rushing Attack - When you remove Bo Nix’s numbers, Broncos running backs are averaging 83.7 yards per game with eight touchdowns on the year. They're not eye-popping numbers, but they use the running game to open up their play-action passing game.
CBs not named Surtain - Denver has the best corner in the NFL. The corners lining up opposite of him struggle. While Surtain allows a 61.1 passer rating, Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian allow 97.9 and 93.9 when targeted. 35% of the completions against Denver have been to players covered by McMillian and Moss.
LBs in Coverage - The Broncos have a dynamic duo on the edge in Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper with their 3-4 scheme. Their interior LBs, particularly in coverage, are where teams can attack. Quarterbacks are completing 83% of passes with a combined rating of 103.3 when targeting Cody Barton and Justin Strnad.
Tight Ends - Denver ranks 30th in targeting the tight end position on offense. Adam Trautman, Lucas Krull, and Nate Adkins comprise a group that accounts for 13% of the Broncos’ receptions, targets, and receiving yards. They’re respectable blockers but not weapons in the passing game.
How They Win
The Broncos are 9-1 in games when holding opponents to 25 rushing attempts or less. Their only victory when a team exceeded that number was against the Colts, who had 32 rush attempts, boosted by Anthony Richardson being the quarterback. Their only loss came in their first meeting with Kansas City, who blocked a field goal as time expired. Forcing teams into passing the ball and allowing their pass rush to tee off is how they win. They have 44 sacks in these 10 games, almost 70% of their total for the year.
Offensively, they want to own the time of possession and use the run game to establish their play-action pass and screen game. This is when their offense is at its best. Their running backs don’t generate a lot of yards on the ground, but they are viable pass catchers that Nix relies on.
How To Beat Them
Make Denver throw, and stop their run game. All 10 of the Broncos’ wins this year have seen them rush the ball 22+ times. In games with 30+ pass attempts, they are 6-7, but those six wins came when they have been able to run the ball 22+ times. They don’t have elite running backs, but they have an offensive line that wears down a defense.
Offensively, take advantage of their slow starts and get a lead. They have been tied or down at the end of the first quarter in 11 games. They managed to win five of those. Target the inferior corners, run the ball, and shorten the game.
