Reviewing My Buffalo Bills Preseason Predictions
The bye week has come and gone which makes it the perfect time to revisit some preseason predictions. I had some big misses, players I wanted to see take a leap in their play that in reality, were long shots. I enjoyed looking back and seeing how things are trending statistically and how the AFC East is currently unfolding. Lets start with the where I was wrong.
Not Even Close
In my Offensive Break-Out Candidates and Defensive Break-Out Candidates from April, I had Mike Edwards, Kaiir Elam, and Justin Shorter as players who would have the best season of their careers in 2024. Shorter didn’t make the team out of training camp, and Edwards had one tackle in the three games he played for the Bills before being released at the trade deadline. Shorter was one of those players I had unrealistic expectations for and thought they just needed an opportunity. In the past, players like Brian Brohm and Duke Williams have filled this void for me. Now Zach Davidson steps into it. Elam getting extended playing time would have meant an injury. Hence, I am glad he hasn’t had the opportunity to put up the 50 tackles and three interceptions I aggressively predicted.
Not Looking Good
I was confident that Dalton Kincaid would have a breakout second season in Buffalo and become the primary target in the offense. This does not appear to be the case eleven weeks into the season. Kincaid has faced added attention that he didn’t see last year, but he has also struggled to develop momentum week after week this season. I looked at PFF’s grades from last year to this year, which are concerning. Last season, Kincaid had an 81.1% catch rate when he was targeted. He is currently at 61.8%. This is the most significant difference in all of the stats year over year. He’s on pace to see around the same number of targets this season, and his yards per reception are up by over a yard from last season. With only two drops on the year, the stats say he’s not having a lot of opportunities to make the catch when the ball is thrown to him. It will be interesting to see how he finishes the final stretch of the regular season.
Kincaid 2024 Projection: 85 catches, 1020 yards, 8 TDs
Kincaid 2024 Actual: 34 catches, 356 yards, 2 TDs
On Pace: 54 catches, 570 yards, 3 TDs
There’s Still Hope
Ty Johnson is having a great season for the Bills, even if the stats aren’t where I expected them to be. He has developed into a premier third-down back and is invaluable in picking up the blitz in pass protection. The emergence of Ray Davis has cut into his touches, which is why he may not have the breakout season I was expecting, but he is an essential piece to the offense.
Johnson 2024 Projection: 110 touches, 600 total yards, 5 TDs
Johnson 2024 Actual: 30 touches, 214 total yards, 3 TDs
On Pace: 47 touches, 331 total yards, 5 TDs
Taylor Rapp entered the season on a new contract but with many unknowns at his ability to take over a starting safety spot on the Bills’ defense. He has put this to bed with his play this season. Rapp hasn’t missed a tackle since week 2 and has a missed tackle % of 3.6 on the season. This number puts him 12th amongst all NFL defenders with 400+ snaps on the year. With his bargain contract, Rapp has made Brandon Beane look like a genius, and Sean McDermott and the coaching staff need some credit for developing his play.
Rapp 2024 Projection: 90 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 5 PD
Rapp 2024 Actual: 56 tackles, 0 sacks, 6 PD, 2 INTs
On Pace: 90 tackles, 0 sacks, 10 PD, 3 INTs
Career Season on the Horizon
Khalil Shakir has developed into a key player in the success of the Bills’ pass-catching group. There was speculation that the uptick in production he saw at the end of last season in Brady’s offense was due to the players around him attracting the coverage. He has dismissed that with his play and the offense’s production when he’s not in the lineup. Shakir missed the Texans game, and it was Josh Allen’s worst game of the season and arguably in his career. Shakir leads NFL receivers with an 84.85% catch percentage, second in YAC with 460 yards, and zero drops on the season. Shakir has positioned himself to receive a nice contract extension after this season.
Shakir 2024 Projection: 65 catches, 950 yards, 6 TDs
Shakir 2024 Actual: 56 catches, 599 yards, 2 TDs
On Pace: 90 catches, 958 yards, 3 TDs
Greg Rousseau has blossomed into a top-15 defensive end in the NFL this season. He can defend the run and passing game at an elite level. His sack totals are not up there with those of the premier edge rushers, but his pass rush win rate and QB pressures are among the top players in the league. Having a defense returning some key players from injury for the season's final five games should help Rousseau see more favorable matchups and continue building on these numbers. Rousseau, like Shakir, is looking at a lucrative contract extension this offseason.
Rousseau 2024 Projection: 55 tackles, 16 TFL, 11.5 sacks
Rousseau 2024 Actual: 37 tackles, 12 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 2 FF
On Pace: 57 tackles, 19 TFL, 8.5 sacks
